Bitcoin may be back above $90,000, but a key on-chain indicator suggests that the market’s recovery could be running on thin ice.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s rebound above $90K is happening while recent buyers are realizing unusually large losses.
- Shrinking short-term demand leaves the $81K support level vulnerable to another retest.
- Glassnode says recovery signals would only strengthen once BTC reclaims the $100K–$105K range.
New data from Glassnode shows that traders who entered the market recently are realizing losses at one of the steepest rates ever recorded. While long-term holders appear unbothered, short-term participants — the cohort that typically fuels momentum in both directions — are deeply underwater.
A Market Bounce With Weak Underpinnings
The recent rally came only days after Bitcoin briefly slipped to the $80,000 region. Historically, rebounds of this size indicate the return of aggressive dip buyers — but this time, the blockchain tells a different story.
Glassnode’s latest report highlights a collapse in the short-term realized profit/loss ratio, a metric used to measure whether recent buyers are selling at a loss or a profit. Right now, the ratio sits at 0.07x, meaning the average short-term seller is exiting at a significant loss.
When this ratio stays low for long periods, liquidity tends to dry up rather than build. Glassnode’s warning is blunt: a market rally driven by underwater traders is inherently unstable.
The Critical Threshold to Watch
Analysts point to $81,000 as the line that Bitcoin cannot afford to lose again. That level represents the “Real Market Average,” a blended cost basis for capital that entered the market in the current cycle.
A decisive drop below it would signal that demand — especially from newer investors — has disappeared. Glassnode compares the current dynamic to early 2022, when months of erosion in short-term demand eventually pushed Bitcoin into a deeper retrace.
What Would Restore Confidence?
There is a clear path toward restoring bullish momentum, according to the report. If Bitcoin manages to break back into the $100,000–$105,000 zone, most short-term investors would return to held-in-profit territory. That tends to increase liquidity, encourage re-accumulation and shift sentiment from defensive to risk-taking.
Until that happens, the move back over $90,000 looks less like the start of a new leg up and more like an attempt to stabilize during a period of market exhaustion.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoins-rally-has-a-problem-short-term-buyers-are-still-bleeding-cash/