Bitcoin’s sharp October–November slump rattled bullish sentiment, briefly dragging the market to $80,000.
Key Takeaways
- Tom Lee no longer expects Bitcoin to hit $250,000 before year-end.
- He still anticipates a realistic chance of BTC breaking $100,000 and setting a new all-time high.
- His outlook is based on Bitcoin’s tendency to generate most of its yearly gains within a small cluster of trading days.
But as the price fought its way back above $90,000 this week, one of the crypto industry’s most confident long-term optimists reshaped his outlook.
Tom Lee — co-founder of Fundstrat and president of BitMine — is no longer targeting a $250,000 year-end finish for Bitcoin. The famously bullish analyst now sees a very different scenario taking shape as 2025 approaches.
“Big days” could decide the entire rest of the year
Instead of predicting a parabolic surge, Lee told CNBC that the rest of the year is likely to be determined by a handful of explosive trading sessions — a pattern he argues has repeated throughout Bitcoin’s history.
He noted that BTC rarely climbs in a steady, linear fashion. Most of the annual performance, according to Lee, typically materializes in roughly ten standout days, while the rest of the year tends to deliver modest results.
In fact, 2024 has already been a textbook example: the ten strongest sessions produced a combined 52% return, compared to an average gain of around 15% over the remaining 355 days.
Because of that statistical quirk, Lee expects that one well-timed surge could still propel Bitcoin beyond $100,000 before the calendar resets — and possibly toward a new all-time high.
Still bullish — but realistic
Lee stressed that his upbeat stance on Bitcoin remains unchanged; he simply doesn’t believe that the market has the firepower to reach $250,000 before year-end anymore. A move into six-figure territory, however, remains “highly plausible” in his view.
He pointed to improving market confidence and a history of late-year upside as the main catalysts that could kick off one last rally.
Whether that momentum materializes is another question — but Lee insists that BTC’s strongest phase of the year could still be ahead rather than behind.
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