At the time of writing, BTC is fluctuating near the $87,000 level after rebounding from recent monthly lows. Market participants are now focused on whether Bitcoin can establish a sustained breakout above resistance or whether another corrective leg may develop.
This analysis is based on daily and 4-hour chart structures observed via TradingView, combined with on-chain metrics from exchange flow data, derivatives positioning from options markets, and historical seasonality records. Together, these inputs suggest Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal decision zone rather than a confirmed trend shift.
BTC Price Faces Heavy Resistance Near $90,000
Bitcoin’s latest price structure shows repeated rejection between $88,000 and $90,000, a zone widely tracked by both discretionary traders and algorithmic systems as a key supply region. According to crypto market analyst Ted Pillows,“$BTC is facing a lot of resistance around the $88,000–$90,000 zone. If BTC doesn’t break above this level soon, a liquidity sweep of the recent lows remains possible.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is encountering strong resistance near $88,000–$90,000, and failure to surpass this level could trigger a renewed decline toward recent lows. Source: Ted via X
From a chart-structure perspective, daily candles have failed multiple times to close convincingly above this band, reinforcing its importance. A failure to reclaim $90,000 could expose downside liquidity in the $80,000–$81,000 region, an area that previously acted as a consolidation base.
Market trend momentum also remains fragile following a bearish “death cross” that formed in mid-November, when the 50-day moving average dropped below the 200-day average. While this signal does not guarantee further losses, it typically reflects weakening medium-term trend strength rather than confirmation of renewed upside.
Bitcoin Price Today Reflects Weak November Performance
Bitcoin price news today remains shaped by one of its weakest Novembers in recent years. Data from CoinGlass shows BTC is down approximately 20% for November, marking its poorest November performance since 2018.
Bitcoin’s historical monthly returns suggest October could see renewed upside, as highlighted in CoinGlass’ latest heatmap. Source: CoinGlass via X
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading near $87,500, well below October’s all-time high. The indicator, which tracks historical percentage changes across market cycles, indicates that historically red Novembers have often coincided with muted or negative December performance. However, this relationship reflects a statistical tendency rather than a predictive certainty, based on roughly a decade of available market data.
Sumit Kapoor, founder of the WiseAdvice trading community and a derivatives-focused market educator, noted, “Every time Bitcoin has closed November in the red, December has also ended lower. That doesn’t guarantee a repeat outcome, but it does reinforce why traders remain cautious right now.”
Technical Structure Shows Short-Term Range Behavior
From a short-term forecast perspective, Bitcoin remains confined to a tight intraday range. On the 4-hour timeframe, BTC opened the week with a modest bullish bias and has so far defended the 50% retracement of Monday’s trading range, a level many short-term traders use to define intraday directional bias.
BTC remains in Monday’s range, likely consolidating, with a possible sweep of Monday’s high or shorts if a bearish daily open occurs. Source: gabbietrades on TradingView
Several liquidity-focused analysts note that a brief move above Monday’s high could occur as part of a liquidity sweep, a process where price pushes into obvious stop-loss zones before reversing. This behavior, often called a “stop-hunt,” does not necessarily confirm a sustained breakout and frequently precedes short-term reversals.
For bullish confirmation, traders are watching for a daily close above structural resistance near $90,000 with rising volume. Conversely, a failure above local highs followed by a bearish daily close would likely shift short-term momentum back toward sellers.
Fibonacci Support and Demand Zone Keep Recovery Hopes Alive
On the downside, Bitcoin is currently trading within a confluence support region defined by the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a zone often monitored for potential reaction points during corrections. These retracement levels measure how deeply the price has pulled back relative to the prior rally and are widely used across traditional and digital asset markets.
BTC has entered a key demand zone at 0.618–0.786 Fib levels with bullish RSI divergence, signaling potential upside if support holds. Source: CryptoCoinsCoach on TradingView
Bitcoin is also holding inside a previous demand block, an area where aggressive buying activity previously entered the market. While demand zones do not guarantee sustained recovery, they often act as short-term buffers against deeper declines.
Momentum indicators add further context. A hidden bullish RSI divergence remains visible on the 4-hour chart, meaning price has formed a higher low while momentum registered a lower low. This pattern historically reflects trend stabilization rather than outright reversal, signaling potential slowing of downside pressure rather than guaranteed upside.
Derivatives and On-Chain Data Signal Cautious Sentiment
Despite structural technical support, derivatives and on-chain data reflect a market still divided on direction. Options pricing from the Deribit December expiry board currently implies roughly a 50% probability of BTC closing the year below $90,000, based on implied volatility and skew. This figure represents a market-implied probability rather than a forecast guarantee.
On-chain metrics from Glassnode show that the Exchange Inflow Ratio for the week ending November 25 has trended higher, a signal often associated with increased profit-taking, hedging activity, or preparation for distribution. Importantly, exchange inflows can reflect multiple behaviors, not exclusively outright selling.
Meanwhile, spot trading volume remains relatively thin compared with earlier Q4 peaks, while liquidation heatmaps show tightly clustered leverage levels above $90,000 and below $82,000, reinforcing the likelihood of volatility-driven stop runs on either side.
Analysts broadly agree that a sustained expansion in spot volume above $90,000 would materially weaken the current bearish thesis.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Outlook
From a probabilistic forecasting standpoint, Bitcoin now sits at a technical inflection zone rather than a confirmed breakout or breakdown point. As long as BTC holds above its Fibonacci support band and established demand zone, the broader corrective structure remains intact.
Bitcoin was trading at around 86,471.86, down 1.31% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin price via Brave New Coin
A confirmed daily breakout above $90,000 with expanding volume and follow-through would significantly improve the outlook for a renewed bullish phase. Until that condition is met, sideways consolidation or controlled pullbacks remain the dominant market scenarios, rather than a clear directional trend.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin price continues to oscillate beneath a major resistance threshold as bullish structural signals, cautious derivatives positioning, and weak seasonal performance collide. While Fibonacci support, RSI stabilization, and demand-zone positioning suggest downside momentum is slowing, overhead supply near $90,000 remains the market’s primary proving ground.
The next sustained directional move will depend less on short-term volatility spikes and more on whether Bitcoin can absorb heavy sell-side liquidity with expanding spot participation. Until then, both upside and downside scenarios remain conditionally valid rather than assured.