Analyzing Monad’s post-mainnet pump: Are we one wick away from a flush?

Key Takeaways 

Why did Monad rally?

Whale leveraged longs pushed Open Interest to $178 million and lifted Derivatives Volume, signaling aggressive bullish positioning.

What could move MON next?

Overbought RSI and Sequential readings raise volatility risk, leaving $0.05 resistance and $0.033 support as key levels.

Monad extended its sharp post-mainnet rally after launching on the 24th of November.

MON jumped 51.2% to a $0.048 high before settling at $0.043 at press time. Its trading volume rose 85% to $1.22 billion, showing heavy activity after multiple exchange listings.

Whale futures demand exploded

Following multiple exchange listings, whales jumped into the market to accumulate Monad [MON] and take strategic positions. 

Significantly, whales showed increased appetite for future positions. According to Lookonchain, a whale opened a long position of 125.57 million MON valued at $5.14 million. 

The position produced over $2 million in floating profit after MON’s price spike. A second whale opened a 3× long on 171.68 million MON, worth $5.6 million, with $654k in unrealised gains, according to Onchain Lens.

On top of that, whale positioning caused a sharp Derivatives spike.

Open Interest jumped 59.51% to a new $178 million all-time high. Derivatives Volume surged 139% to $2.65 billion, confirming aggressive participation from large traders.

Source: CoinGlass

Heavy Futures demand, especially from whales, usually reflects strong bullish expectations. These leveraged entries create synthetic buying pressure that often leads retail flows.

Retail followed the momentum

In addition to Futures demand, Monad saw massive retail buying as traders jumped into the market to accumulate the altcoin.

According to CoinGlass, Spot Netflow turned negative after skyrocketing the previous day, reflecting a sudden shift in market sentiment. Thus, after the altcoin launched, most early investors began taking profits, driving Netflow to $7.7 million.

Source: CoinGlass

By contrast, Netflow flipped sharply on the 26th of November, dropping to -$2.44 million, indicating strong withdrawals as retail accumulated MON again. Exchange outflows usually compress available supply and support upward price pressure.

Momentum stretched into overbought levels

AMBCrypto’s review found Monad maintained momentum across both markets.

Sequential Pattern Strength hit 107, entering overbought territory. RSI touched 84 before easing to 79 at press time.

Source: TradingView

These elevated readings showed buyer dominance. They often signal trend continuation, but they also warn of volatility risk when markets become crowded with leveraged longs.

Even so, if whale Futures demand holds and retail maintains withdrawals, MON may reclaim $0.05 and attempt a higher push. But a liquidation cascade from overcrowded longs could drag MON toward $0.033.