U.S. Jobless Claims Come In Below Expectations, Bitcoin Climbs

The U.S. initial jobless claims came in below estimates of 226,000, suggesting a rebound in the labor market, which is typically bearish in the push for a rate cut. However, despite this development, Bitcoin rose on the back of the data release, reaching $87,000 from an intraday low of around $86,400.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Come In At 216,000, Bitcoin Rises

Department of Labor data shows that initial claims for the week ending November 22 were 216,000, down 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This was also below expectations of 226,000.

This macro data follows the release of the September PPI inflation report yesterday. The Bitcoin price rose to $87,000 after the release of U.S. jobless claims, despite the data hinting at a rebound in the labor market, which could give the Fed less urgency to cut rates.

TradingView data shows that the flagship crypto climbed from an intraday low of around $86,400 on the back of the initial claims report. BTC continues to chop following last week’s crash below $82,000.

Notably, Bitcoin has rebounded from last week’s lows amid optimism of a Fed rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. The odds of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut had dropped to as low as 30% last week but rebounded above 70% following New York Fed President John Williams’ remarks on Friday.

Meanwhile, the odds of a December rate cut further surged yesterday following the release of the PPI inflation report. The report suggested that the weakening labor market might still be a bigger problem than rising inflation, which raised bets on a December cut.

Rate Cuts Odds Remain Steady

CME FedWatch data shows that the odds of a 25-bps rate cut at the December FOMC meeting have held steady following the initial jobless claims report. The odds of a December cut reached 85% yesterday and now stand at 85.2%, as traders continue to price in a third cut this year.

Another rate cut will be a positive for Bitcoin’s price, especially as it looks to rebound above $100,000 following its November crash. The flagship crypto has surged to new all-time highs (ATHs) before the September and October rate cuts.

Attention will now turn to the PCE inflation, which the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has announced it will release on December 5. The PCE is notably the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, and the data is likely to influence the Fed’s decision as some officials remain concerned over rising inflation.

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