TLDR
- Robinhood launched prediction markets in March 2024, becoming one of its fastest-growing revenue sources with 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million users
- Robinhood plans to acquire MIAXdx and launch its own futures and derivatives exchange with clearinghouse in 2026
- Polymarket received CFTC regulatory approval to operate an intermediated trading platform in the US
- The CFTC and DOJ closed their investigation into Polymarket five months ago after questions about US user access
- US Senate is expected to vote on Michael Selig as the next CFTC chair while four commissioner seats remain empty
Robinhood announced Tuesday that prediction markets have become one of its fastest-growing product lines since launching in March 2024. The trading platform partnered with Kalshi to offer the service, which has processed 9 billion contracts from more than 1 million users.
JB Mackenzie, general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, said the platform is experiencing strong customer demand. The company plans to expand its prediction market offerings through new infrastructure investments.
Robinhood will acquire MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed derivatives clearing organization and swap execution facility. The company plans to launch a futures and derivatives exchange with an accompanying clearinghouse.
The new exchange will have Robinhood as the controlling partner and market maker. Susquehanna International Group will serve as the day-one liquidity provider.
Operations are expected to begin in 2026. The move represents Robinhood’s commitment to building out its prediction market infrastructure.
Prediction markets have seen increased activity across multiple platforms this year. Kalshi has recorded $4.47 billion in trading volume over the last 30 days, according to DefiLlama data.
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has processed $3.58 billion in trading volume during the same period. The platform recently received regulatory approval from the CFTC.
Polymarket can now operate an intermediated trading platform under full US federal exchange requirements. The approval allows the platform to onboard brokerages and customers directly.
“This approval allows us to operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the US regulatory framework demands,” said Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan. The regulatory clearance came five months after the CFTC and DOJ closed an investigation into the platform.
The investigation examined whether Polymarket accepted trades from US-based users. FBI agents raided Coplan’s home during the probe and seized his electronic devices.
Other crypto exchanges are entering the prediction market space. Crypto.com recently launched a prediction market platform set to integrate with Trump Media.
Gemini filed with the CFTC on November 11 to launch prediction markets as part of a super app initiative. Website data suggests Coinbase is also developing a prediction market platform.
The regulatory environment for prediction markets is evolving. Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham issued the Amended Order of Designation for Polymarket.
The US Senate is expected to vote on Michael Selig’s nomination as the next CFTC chair. Senate Agriculture Committee lawmakers voted along party lines to advance his nomination.
The CFTC currently has four empty commissioner seats. President Donald Trump has not announced potential replacements for these positions as of Tuesday.
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