Is Bitcoin losing strength ahead of 2026? THESE datasets suggest…

Key takeaways

Is BTC retail weak right now?

Retail wallets are shrinking while large holders added 91 new whale addresses, so there is retail fatigue.

What are the major risks Bitcoin faces in the short term?

There’s short-term pressure and weaker market efficiency to look out for in the near future.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] market structure has more going on than what meets the eye.

Large holders continue to buy while smaller wallets thin out, so retail fatigue is on the cards. Meanwhile, BTC is trading below its Active Realized Price, and that usually adds short-term pressure when left unclaimed.

With the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) considering the removal of crypto-exposed firms early next year, institutional flows may soon face a trial by fire.

The big fish keep buying

According to Santiment, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has risen by 0.47% since the 11th of November. This adds 91 new large holders.

Source: Santiment

In contrast, smaller wallets, especially those holding 0.1 BTC or less, have been steadily declining. Retail investors are pulling back, while larger players continue to expand their positions.

At first glance, this trend may look like short-term weakness. However, retail capitulation has actually created healthier conditions for long-term growth. 

Stronger hands tend to bring more stability to the market, reducing volatility and supporting a more sustainable price structure.

THIS is the level to watch

Building on this, Bitcoin was trading below a crucial threshold at press time: the Active Realized Price, which stood near $88,800.

This level shows what active investors actually paid for their BTC, ignoring long-lost or untouched coins. When the market trades above it, most active holders are in profit, and selling pressure usually eases.

But trading below this line tends to make investors uneasy, often leading to more short-term selling if the price doesn’t rebound quickly.

Source: X

A move back above $88,800 would bring relief to active market participants.

And as if that wasn’t enough…

Bitcoin may soon face a new challenge from the TradFi side. MSCI is considering removing companies with more than 50% crypto exposure from its indexes, with a final decision expected in January 2026.

Source: X

This matters because index exclusions can force institutional investors to reduce or exit positions tied to those companies. If that happens, it could indirectly add selling pressure to Bitcoin itself, especially if large crypto-related firms see significant outflows.

While nothing is final yet, it’s a risk worth keeping on the radar as the decision date approaches.

In addition, Bitcoin’s annualized Sharpe Ratio has dropped, a sign of a less efficient market in the short term. Similar drops in 2019, at the 2021 peak, and during the 2022 capitulation were followed by slow phases before the market got strong again.

Source: Alphractal

The short-term leans bearish, but these resets have also been followed by major long-term bull cycles.