A growing number of crypto analysts are reassessing the strength of Bitcoin’s trend following the latest market pullback.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s earlier catalysts — ETF inflows, halving momentum and political support — have faded, weakening the trend.
- Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone warns that losing the $84,000 support could trigger a deeper drop toward $50,000.
- The crypto sell-off alongside a low VIX suggests broader markets have not yet priced in risk, raising caution for the weeks ahead.
One of the strongest cautionary voices is coming from Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who believes the cryptocurrency may be entering a more challenging phase after months of momentum-driven gains.
Changing Market Environment
McGlone argued that the catalysts powering Bitcoin earlier in the year — including liquidity from spot ETF inflows, the halving cycle and increased political support — are no longer pushing the market forward. He described the current setup as typical of the late stage of a bull cycle, where enthusiasm lingers while price structure begins to deteriorate.
Crypto as a whole has reflected that shift. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has fallen 21%, signaling that recent weakness is not isolated to Bitcoin. BTC itself is down around 10% year-over-year, despite outperforming for much of the spring and summer.
Lack of Stress in Equities Raises Red Flag
What concerns McGlone most is not the crypto sell-off on its own, but what other markets are not doing. The VIX — Wall Street’s volatility benchmark — remains low, which he interprets as a sign that broader markets have yet to react to the deterioration in digital assets. He believes that this disconnect increases the risk of a later shift into risk-off positioning.
Technical Levels Take Center Stage
McGlone puts less weight on sentiment and more on the chart. In his view, $84,000 is the level Bitcoin must defend if the market wants to maintain its broader bullish structure. A move below that price could imply a transition into a deeper correction.
Upside resistance sits near $94,000, but McGlone sees it as secondary in importance to the vulnerability of support. If the lower boundary breaks, he thinks a move toward $50,000 becomes increasingly realistic — not because Bitcoin has failed fundamentally, but because that region has historically acted as a major price pivot during 2020 and 2021.
A More Bearish Perspective Than the Consensus
McGlone’s assessment contrasts with the prevailing expectations of a year-end recovery among retail investors and some institutional desks. While not ruling out a rebound, he believes that the probability of a retest of lower historical levels is currently higher than the probability of a sharp resurgence.
The next weeks — and particularly Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $84,000 — will determine whether the strategist’s concerns become shared more widely across the market.
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