Nasdaq 100 outlook – Bulls take control, but heavy resistance awaits
The Nasdaq 100 continues to extend its reversal after a clean H4 Fair Value Gap mitigation, with buyers reclaiming structure and breaking above the 24,931 breakout level. This marks the strongest bullish follow-through since the recent downswing.
Risk appetite is slowly returning, yields are softening, and macro uncertainty is easing — allowing tech-heavy indices to breathe again. The next battlefield now sits at 25,284, a level that has historically capped upside momentum.
A confirmed break above that zone unlocks the next destination: 26,000, a psychological and technical milestone that aligns with the broader bullish read.
Fundamental narrative – What’s fueling Nasdaq’s move?
1. Improving risk sentiment ahead of key US data
Markets are shifting back into growth-heavy assets while waiting for US economic signals. Softer data expectations are supportive of tech, especially when risk sentiment is neutral to positive.
2. Pullback in US Treasury yields
Lower yields reduce valuation pressure on high-duration tech stocks. This week’s moderation in the 10-year and 2-year yields has given the Nasdaq fresh breathing room.
3. Four-hour demand zone activation
The strong reaction from the 24,450–24,525 H4 Fair Value Gap was the clearest sign of bullish intent. That zone now stands as the trend reversal confirmation area — the key support that must hold for any continuation toward 26,000.
Main driver behind Nasdaq’s potential upside continuation
The biggest catalyst behind the Nasdaq’s momentum is the rising probability of a dovish December tone from the Federal Reserve. With inflation releases delayed and demand indicators softening, the market is quietly shifting toward the idea of potential easing.
This fuels Nasdaq upside in several ways:
1. Rate-cut expectations are slowly building
Tech stocks thrive when yields fall.
A dovish shift → Cheaper money → Higher valuations → Stronger Nasdaq.
This alone can power a sustained multi-week rally.
2. Liquidity conditions are improving
The ongoing delays in economic reporting have reduced policy noise. When liquidity conditions stabilize, tech indices tend to outperform sharply.
3. Tech leadership is returning
AI, cloud, and semiconductor flows remain strong. Markets are willing to rotate back into future-growth sectors — a classic sign of early trend reversal.
4. Markets price the future, not the present
Investors are looking toward Q1 2026 and beyond.
If the macro backdrop hints at easing conditions, dips will continue to be defended.
This forward-looking optimism is the main reason why the Nasdaq’s break above 24,931 carried real conviction — and why 26,000 is now a realistic upside target, not a stretch projection.
Technical outlook
Price has reclaimed structure, confirming a bullish reversal:
- Tap into H4 Fair Value Gap.
- Strong displacement.
- Break above 24,931.
- Strong continuation toward 25,284.
The uptrend remains intact while 24,525 holds.
Bullish scenario
A bullish continuation remains favored with 24,525 acting as key support.
Conditions for continuation
- Acceptable retest of 24,931.
- Momentum remains above trendline structure.
- Macro tone stays neutral to positive.
Upside targets
- Immediate target: 25,284.
- Above that: 25,500.
- Main bullish target: 26,000.
A clean candle body close above 25,284 opens the door toward 26,000.
Bearish scenario
A rejection at 25,284 could trigger a deeper corrective pullback.
Bearish triggers
- Sharp rejection at the resistance ceiling
- Break back below 24,931
- Failure of 24,525 as a demand zone
Downside targets
- 24,800
- 24,525 (critical invalidation zone)
- Below that opens 24,300 – 24,200
Losing 24,525 completely invalidates the road to 26,000.
Final thoughts
The Nasdaq’s structure is bullish, the macro backdrop is slowly improving, and the reaction from the H4 demand zone was clean and decisive. The key now is the 25,284 ceiling. Break and hold above it — and 26,000 becomes the next major destination.