Polymarket Secures CFTC Approval for Regulated U.S. Return

The world’s largest prediction market platform has received official approval to return to American markets after a three-year ban.

Polymarket announced Tuesday that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an Amended Order of Designation, allowing the platform to operate as a fully regulated exchange.

The approval marks a major milestone for prediction markets in the United States. It allows American users to trade contracts on future events through traditional brokerages and futures commission merchants (FCMs), bringing the platform under the same regulatory framework that governs other federal exchanges.

The Path Back to Compliance

Polymarket’s journey back to U.S. markets required significant regulatory work. The platform was banned from serving American customers in 2022 when the CFTC fined the company $1.4 million for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange.

The breakthrough came in July 2025 when Polymarket acquired QCX for $112 million. QCX LLC and QC Clearing already held the necessary CFTC licenses to operate as both a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse. This purchase gave Polymarket the regulatory foundation needed to legally serve U.S. customers again.

The regulatory path cleared further in September 2025 when the CFTC issued a no-action letter effectively allowing the company to operate in American markets. Federal investigations by both the Department of Justice and CFTC were also closed without charges being filed.

What the Approval Means

The new designation transforms how Americans can access prediction markets. Instead of direct blockchain interactions, users will trade through intermediaries like traditional brokerages. This change integrates Polymarket into established market infrastructure used across the derivatives and commodities sectors.

“People rely on Polymarket because we provide clarity where there is confusion and accountability where there is ambiguity,” said Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s founder and CEO. The approval allows the platform to “operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the U.S. regulatory framework demands.”

Source: @Polymarket

Polymarket has upgraded its compliance systems to meet federal exchange standards. The platform developed enhanced surveillance technology, clearing workflows, supervision policies, and regulatory reporting systems. These upgrades bring Polymarket in line with requirements for designated contract markets under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Record Growth and Institutional Interest

Polymarket has experienced explosive growth throughout 2025. The platform processed over $18.1 billion in total trading volume and grew its user base from 20,000 to nearly 58,000 daily active users. November alone is projected to reach $3.5 billion in trading volume, following October’s record of over $3 billion.

The company’s valuation has skyrocketed alongside its growth. Polymarket raised $200 million at a $1 billion valuation in June 2025. By October, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, invested up to $2 billion in the platform at a $9 billion valuation. Current reports suggest the company is now seeking funding at a valuation between $12-15 billion.

Major institutional partnerships have followed the investment. Polymarket secured deals with sports leagues including the UFC and signed partnerships with fantasy sports platforms like PrizePicks. The platform also announced plans to launch its native POLY token in 2026, with an airdrop planned for existing users.

Competitive Landscape

Polymarket’s return sets up direct competition with Kalshi, another CFTC-regulated prediction market that has operated legally in the U.S. market. As of mid-November 2025, Kalshi captured approximately 62% of total prediction market volume while Polymarket controlled 37%.

Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October 2025 and has integrated with trading platforms like Robinhood. The combined monthly trading volume between both platforms reached $4.5 billion, demonstrating massive growth in the prediction market sector.

Traditional gambling companies are also entering the space. FanDuel partnered with CME Group to launch prediction markets, while DraftKings explores similar options. The U.S. sports betting industry generated $13.7 billion in revenue last year, with projections reaching $39 billion by 2030.

Implementation Timeline

Polymarket will not launch immediately in the U.S. market. The company must first implement additional rules, policies, and processes specific to intermediated trading before going live. These measures aim to strengthen compliance and ensure market integrity.

The platform will continue operating under full CFTC oversight, including self-regulatory obligations required of designated contract markets. Enhanced surveillance systems will monitor trading activity, while new clearing procedures will handle transaction settlement.

Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital is reportedly in talks with both Polymarket and Kalshi about becoming a liquidity provider. Galaxy would act as a market-maker on the platforms, posting regular bids and offers to deepen trading and improve market efficiency.

The Bigger Picture

The CFTC’s approval reflects broader regulatory acceptance of prediction markets as legitimate financial products. These platforms allow users to trade on real-world event outcomes, from political elections to economic indicators and sports results.

Supporters argue that prediction markets aggregate information more efficiently than traditional polling by requiring participants to put money behind their beliefs. During the 2024 presidential election, Polymarket correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory while many traditional polls showed different results.

The regulatory clarity provided by the CFTC approval could attract more institutional investors and mainstream adoption. Financial firms may start incorporating crowd-sourced probability estimates into their trading strategies and risk models.

However, challenges remain. Some states have issued cease-and-desist orders questioning whether event contracts constitute gambling rather than legitimate financial products. The legal landscape continues evolving as federal and state regulators work out jurisdiction questions.

A New Era Begins

Polymarket’s regulatory approval represents more than just a business milestone. It signals the maturation of prediction markets as a permanent part of the American financial system. With backing from Wall Street’s largest exchange operator, partnerships with major sports leagues, and confirmed regulatory compliance, the platform is positioned to bridge traditional finance and decentralized markets.