Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day’s two-way price move and climbs back closer to the $4,150 level during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US macro data released on Tuesday pointed to signs of cooling inflation and gave the Federal Reserve (Fed) more headroom to ease rates further. Moreover, several Fed officials backed the case for a third rate cut this year in December recently. The outlook, in turn, drags the US Dollar (USD) to a one-week low and benefits the non-yielding yellow metal.
Meanwhile, the prospect of lower US interest rates boosts investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from the upbeat mood across the global equity markets and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the safe-haven Gold. Adding to this, hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine contribute to cap a sustained rise in the precious metal. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair is to the upside as investors now look to more US data for some impetus.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold retains positive bias as dovish Fed expectations undermine USD
- The latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday that the US Producer Prices Index rose 2.7% in September from a year earlier, slightly above the 2.6% previous and broadly in line with expectations. Stripping out food and energy, the core gauge was up 2.9% over the year compared to the 2.7% forecast and the 2.8% increase recorded in August.
- Separately, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in September. The reading was below consensus estimates for a 0.4% growth and follows a 0.6% increase in August. Adding to this, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to a seven-month low in November amid concerns about a sluggish labor market.
- Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said last Friday that interest rates could fall in the near term without putting the central bank’s inflation goal at risk. Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this week that the job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point interest rate cut at the December meeting.
- Governor Stephen Miran echoed the dovish view and said in a television interview on Tuesday that a deteriorating job market and the economy call for large interest rate cuts to get monetary policy to neutral. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around an 85% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next month.
- The US Dollar fell to a nearly one-week low in the aftermath of the rather unimpressive data, which was delayed in the wake of the longest-ever US government shutdown, and rising dovish Fed bets. This, in turn, assists the non-yielding Gold to regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, following the previous day’s two-way price move.
- President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine is ready to advance a US-backed framework for ending the war with Russia. Moreover, US President Donald Trump backed away from imposing any deadline to reach a peace deal and said that his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will be going to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin next week.
- Traders now look forward to Wednesday’s US economic docket – featuring the delayed release of Durable Goods Orders, along with the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Chicago PMI. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the USD demand and producing short-term opportunities around the XAU/USD pair.
Gold seems poised to climb further and aim toward reclaiming $4,200
The commodity defended a confluence support last week – comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and an upward-sloping trend-line extending from late October. The subsequent move up, along with positive oscillators on 4-hour/daily charts, backs the case for a further near-term upward move. Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high, around the $4,159 region, will reaffirm the positive outlook and lift Gold price to the $4,177-4,178 intermediate hurdle en route to the $4,200 round figure. Sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for an extension of the momentum toward testing the monthly swing high, around the $4,245 zone.
On the flip side, any pullback might continue to find decent support near the $4,110-4,100 region. A convincing break below the latter would expose the aforementioned confluence, currently pegged near the $4,034-4,033 zone, below which the Gold price could drop to the $4,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders and pave the way for a fall toward last week’s swing low, around the $3,968-3,967 area. The XAU/USD could extend the fall further toward the $3,931 region, the $3,900 mark, and late October trough, around the $3,886 region.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.