Stellar price continues to face mounting pressure as the token fails to secure a firm recovery above the closely watched $0.25 level.
Despite brief attempts at stabilization, sellers remain dominant across both spot and derivatives markets.
With open interest flattening, fundamentals steady but uninspiring, and technical indicators skewed bearish, the coin appears headed toward a critical phase that could determine whether its multi-week downtrend deepens or finally pauses.
Open Interest Softens as Sellers Maintain Control Over Market Structure
XLM/USD has trended lower over recent sessions, extending a decline that began after its mid-month rebound failed to generate sustained follow-through. Price action has been defined by consistent lower highs and lower lows, clearly illustrating that sellers continue to outweigh buyers. The brief bounce in the last two sessions shows some relief buying, but the broader structure remains decisively bearish.
Source: Open Interest
Derivatives behavior is echoing the weakness seen in the price chart. Aggregated open interest fell from above 75.2 million to around 75.15 million as the market dropped, a sign that traders chose to close positions rather than add new risk. When OI contracts alongside a declining price, it typically signals reduced conviction, especially among leveraged players seeking to avoid further downside exposure.
Since the modest price recovery, OI has stabilized but has not rebounded. This flatlining reflects a cautious market lacking strong directional belief. Without an uptick in OI accompanying upward movement, it becomes difficult for bulls to build momentum. Traders appear to be waiting for clearer signals before committing to new positions, leaving the coin vulnerable if sellers regain strength.
Data Shows Mild Positive Movement, but Fundamental Momentum Remains Limited
According to BraveNewCoin, the coin is currently priced at $0.25, up 0.69% in the last 24 hours. The token carries a market cap of $8.15 billion, supported by an extensive circulating supply of 32.29 billion tokens, and daily volume hovering around $248 million. While the 24-hour increase reflects some stabilization, it remains modest compared to the losses accumulated over recent weeks.
The trading range between $0.24 and $0.26 highlights the narrow consolidation zone the coin has drifted into. This tight movement typically precedes a breakout or breakdown, especially when paired with weakening momentum indicators. Although the coin’s fundamentals remain relatively steady, they have not provided a significant catalyst capable of lifting the asset out of its directional slump.
Stellar’s price behavior continues to rely heavily on broader market sentiment rather than internal developments or network growth triggers. As such, the token remains susceptible to shifts in liquidity, macro uncertainty, and market-wide risk appetite. For now, maintaining support above the $0.24–$0.25 band is crucial for preventing further deterioration in market structure.
Technical Indicators Point to Ongoing Bearish Pressure Despite Slight Relief Bounce
TradingView data reinforces the bearish outlook. The coin is trading near $0.2479, posting a daily loss of more than 2% and slipping below the psychological $0.25 threshold once again. The broader trend remains defined by lower highs and lower lows, a pattern that has persisted since the sharp rally earlier this year faded.
Source: TradingView
Momentum signals remain weak. The daily RSI sits near 40.48, just above its moving average of 35.27, indicating soft buying interest and little sign of a momentum shift. This level is not yet oversold, meaning further declines remain possible without triggering immediate technical relief.
MACD readings add to the caution. The MACD line rests at -0.0166, below the signal line, while the histogram has only just turned slightly positive. Although this uptick hints at easing bearish momentum, it does not confirm any trend reversal. Indicators still lean neutral-to-bearish, suggesting that any rebound may be shallow unless stronger momentum materializes.
Key resistance now stands between $0.27 and $0.29, a zone that previously acted as support but flipped into resistance after persistent breakdowns. Failure to reclaim this region keeps the downtrend intact. On the downside, $0.22 is emerging as the next major support target if sellers intensify their pressure.
XLM Price Prediction Outlook
In the short term, the coin maintains a neutral-to-bearish bias. A rise above $0.27 with increasing open interest would be the first meaningful signal of bullish re-accumulation. Until then, price remains vulnerable to continued downside, especially if OI decreases further and momentum stays muted. Traders should watch for RSI recovery above 40–45 and a MACD bullish crossover to validate any reversal attempt.