Bitcoin has entered a stretch of the market where patience is thin, profits are minimal, and reactions are driven more by nerves than strategy.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin is now in a zone where active investors are near breakeven.
- 10x Research expects the current rebound to fade quickly.
- The firm exited longs near $111,545 and plans to re-enter lower.
That is the message from a new 10x Research breakdown, which suggests that the current price range leaves the average active investor sitting nearly at breakeven — historically the moment when disciplined trading begins to erode and volatility accelerates.
Where This Bitcoin Rally Likely Fades and Where We Reload for the Next Cycle
Bitcoin just slipped into a zone where the average active investor’s profit margin is razor thin, and history shows that’s when emotions start replacing discipline.
Our latest analysis breaks down why… pic.twitter.com/1xRSMaTqIf
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) November 25, 2025
Instead of focusing on price targets or emotional forecasts, the report maps out where real money has been deployed on-chain. According to researchers, a crucial metric that tracks the financial exposure of recently active Bitcoin holders has just turned down after months of support. And while the move may trigger a short-term bounce, previous cycles imply the rally is likely to run out of steam before new highs can form.
Why This Phase Matters Now
10x Research points to what it calls the True Market Mean Price, an indicator built around the cost basis of coins that have actually changed hands rather than those sitting untouched in long-term storage. Because it concentrates on wallets that have been actively buying or selling, the metric reveals the real profit-and-loss line for the current generation of traders rather than for historical holders.
The recent shift in this metric signals that active investors have lost most of their profit cushion. When that has happened in the past, late buyers tended to double down on positions just as risk was rising, while smarter capital stepped aside and waited for the next accumulation window.
Strategic Levels Highlighted in the Report
10x says it previously advised clients to cut significant long exposure near $111,545, securing roughly $23,000 in profit per BTC before the margin of safety disappeared. With Bitcoin now trading below the zone where active investors remain comfortably profitable, the firm identifies two major turning points:
- A short-lived rebound is likely before upside momentum fades
- The next attractive accumulation range sits meaningfully lower
The report emphasizes that this pullback — if it develops — should not be interpreted as the end of the bull cycle. Instead, it may provide long-term traders an opportunity to redeploy profits captured earlier at significantly better prices.
What Comes Next
10x Research stresses that the goal now is not to chase a sudden rally but to monitor where the rebound stalls, as that tends to reveal the path toward the next accumulation zone. The firm describes its current stance as “active positioning around a mini-rebound,” while preparing to scale back in only once Bitcoin reenters strategic value territory.
The takeaway: Bitcoin’s uptrend is not dead, but the profitable part of the rally for active investors has ended for now — and the smart money is watching the next dip more carefully than the next pump.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-is-running-on-fumes-10x-research-says-the-real-dip-is-still-ahead/