New Immigration Policy Likely To Block Many Family Immigrants

The Trump administration has proposed a new immigration policy likely to block many family-based immigrants from coming to America. The policy would label more family immigrants a “public charge,” allowing officials to prevent their entry. However, new research undermines the policy push, finding that a recent Federal Register notice ignores crucial empirical evidence: Individuals entering as family immigrants start with lower initial earnings but quickly adapt by trying new jobs and investing in skills and education that lead to rapid earnings growth. They are also unlikely to receive public assistance income.

Individuals who immigrate with family members or join them in the United States have been a central feature of immigration throughout American history. After Intel’s Andy Grove immigrated to America as a refugee following the Hungarian Revolution, he immediately pursued ways to sponsor his parents, who joined him in the United States. Years earlier, in 1885, a 16-year-old Friedrich Trump, Donald Trump’s grandfather, immigrated to America to join his sister Katherine, who “had immigrated to New York a year earlier,” according to Trump biographer Gwenda Blair.

In 1930, Mary Anne MacLeod immigrated to America from Scotland as an unskilled 18-year-old to live with her married sister in Queens. Six years later, she met Fred Trump at a party, they married and had children, one of whom was Donald Trump. “Donald Trump is a product of (family) ‘chain migration,’” according to Columbia University historian Mae M. Ngai.

Most family immigrants are the Immediate Relatives of U.S. citizens—the spouses, children (under 21) and parents of American citizens. There are also family preference categories, which include the siblings, married and unmarried children (21 or older) of U.S. citizens and the spouses, children (under 21) and unmarried adult children of lawful permanent residents (green card holders).

New Trump Administration Immigration Policies On Public Charge

The Trump administration has enacted or proposed measures that will result in lower levels of family immigration. The Department of Homeland Security published a far-reaching measure in the Federal Register on Nov. 19. DHS proposed rescinding the Biden administration’s public charge rule and replacing it, in its words, with a “broader discretion to evaluate all pertinent facts and align with long-standing policy that aliens in the United States should be self-reliant and government benefits should not incentivize immigration.” Despite the proposal, DHS does not cite any research or other evidence in the Federal Register notice showing the current public charge policy has resulted in allowing government benefits to “incentivize immigration.”

After accounting for tax revenue from capital income generated by an immigrant worker’s presence in the economy, George Mason University economics professor Michael Clemens found that an average recent immigrant without a high school degree has a lifetime positive net fiscal balance of $128,000. “Including the expected children and grandchildren of the average immigrant without a high school degree, the lifetime positive net fiscal effect is $326,000.” Clemens makes the logical assumption that companies would invest in computers, machines and office space when they hire immigrants. By pursuing profits, employers would pay more taxes to governments after hiring immigrants.

During Donald Trump’s first term, DHS proposed a public charge rule, which was blocked in court and later invalidated by Biden officials, that would have allowed officials to block many family immigrants, potentially reducing the number eligible to immigrate by hundreds of thousands a year. “If the new rescission proposal is finalized, DHS intends to implement a public charge policy that would be far broader than the frameworks established in both the current regulation and in a now-defunct DHS regulation from the first Trump administration,” according to the Fragomen law firm.

Under U.S. immigration law, an applicant for admission or adjustment of status is inadmissible if they are “likely at any time to become a public charge.” A consular officer or other official “shall at a minimum consider the alien’s age, health, family status, assets, resources, and financial status and education and skills.” Consular officers and officials “may also consider any affidavit of support.”

DHS concedes in the Federal Register notice that new immigrants are not eligible for federal means-tested public benefits for at least five years after entering the United States. (The rules differ for refugees and asylees.) DHS also notes that sponsors of family immigrants sign legally binding affidavits of support. If considered, the affidavits of support should mitigate concerns that individuals may become a public charge since sponsors can reimburse benefit costs.

DHS does not express or cite concern that removing a structured review of applicants detailed by regulation in favor of subjective determinations by consular officers and others will, based on previous estimates, result in hundreds of thousands of immigrants annually being denied entry. The proposed rule does not consider it a cost that the DHS action will prevent many Americans from living in the United States with a spouse, child or other close relative, which will be the primary impact of the new policy.

The Federal Register notice cannot detail any quantitative benefits from the new policy, stating “DHS anticipates this proposed rule will produce benefits but is limited to providing a qualitative analysis.” The “qualitative” benefits DHS anticipates will not go to Americans or the U.S. economy, but to government personnel who will not be “unnecessarily” limited in their “ability to make public charge inadmissibility determinations.”

In recent weeks, the State Department issued a notice to consular officers to direct them to deny visas to people with obesity, diabetes or other health issues if they could be considered potential public charges. “A diplomat who received last week’s cable, and also spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, said State Department leadership has been very active in finding new ways to deny foreigners entry into the U.S. or just slow down the system,” reported the Washington Post (November 13, 2025).

The administration issued a proclamation on June 4, 2025, banning the entry of persons issued immigrant visas at a consulate from 19 countries. The proclamation exempts the spouses, children and parents of U.S. citizens but contains no exception for immigrants in the family preference categories. Americans must meet a new standard to sponsor family members: “clear and convincing evidence of identity and family relationship (e.g., DNA),” according to the proclamation.

New Immigration Research Undermines A Key Premise Of New Public Charge Policies

New research indicates that the proposed public charge policy ignores crucial empirical evidence by assuming that family immigrants are static individuals who do not improve over time in the United States. “Real earnings increased by 76% over 12 years for immigrants from countries where family sponsorship is the primary method of immigrating to the United States,” according to a new National Foundation for American Policy analysis by economist Mark Regets, an NFAP senior fellow.

The significant gains by family immigrants compared with real earnings growth of only 23% for U.S.-born workers the same age during the same period, the analysis notes, indicating that family-based immigrants make significant economic progress and integrate into America. “The research also finds that family immigrants have lower rates of incarceration and use of public assistance income than U.S.-born individuals of the same age, and that they increase their educational attainment and English proficiency over time in America.”

“Even if someone starts out at a low income, a rapid increase in earnings makes it very likely they will be a net asset to the U.S. economy,” said Regets in an interview, pointing to a flaw in prospective public charge policies.

Family immigrants have higher participation rates than comparable U.S.-born individuals and, on average, only 1.6% received public assistance income in 2021-2023. Haitians had a labor force participation rate of 90% (compared to 76.5% for U.S.-born individuals in the same age range) in 2021-23 and experienced earnings growth of 154% from 2009-11 to 2021-23.

“This study reinforces the importance of legal, family-based immigration and shows the critical economic contributions that immigrants bring to America,” said Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) in a statement. “By promoting family unity and reducing backlogs for legal immigration, the Dignity Act of 2025 (HR 4393) will help grow our economy, address the affordability crisis, and ensure our immigration policy continues to be a competitive advantage for the United States.”

The Immediate Relatives of U.S. citizens can enter the United States without numerical quotas, provided they pass appropriate background checks. The family preference categories are subject to numerical and per-country quotas, resulting in long wait times for individuals from several countries. There were approximately 3.8 million people on the family-sponsored preference waiting list as of November 2023, according to the State Department. As of November 2025, only applicants whose sponsors filed before July 2001 were eligible to enter from Mexico as the married son or daughter of a U.S. citizen. Only applicants who filed before January 2008 were eligible to enter from the Philippines as the sibling of a U.S. citizen.

The Dignity Act, introduced by Rep. Salazar, contains a provision for individuals “who are beneficiaries (including derivative beneficiaries) of an approved immigrant visa petition bearing a priority date that is more than 10 years before the alien submits an application for an immigrant visa or for adjustment of status; and who deposit a premium processing fee of $20,000 into the [newly established] Immigration Infrastructure and Debt Reduction Fund.” That would help people immigrate who have been waiting a decade or longer in immigrant backlogs, including employment-based immigrants.

In conducting the research, Regets analyzed American Community Survey data and identified countries whose family admissions accounted for 75% or more of their legal immigration to the United States between 2005 and 2009. He notes that the methodology could underestimate characteristics, such as earnings and educational levels, by excluding countries like India that have substantial flows of individuals entering through employment-based immigrant categories and high levels of education among siblings and others.

The performance of family immigrants is consistent with the Immigrant Human Capital Investment model of rapid earnings growth and their general situation in the United States, as proposed by Regets and Harriet Duleep in 1999, according to the analysis.

After arriving via family immigration, immigrants adapt by trying new jobs, getting new degrees and improving their English. “Immigrants who do not come to America to fill specific jobs often start with lower earnings but experience rapid earnings growth as they adapt and increase their skills to meet the needs of the U.S. labor market,” according to Regets. “Their adaptability creates dynamism in the U.S. economy and benefits American consumers and employers by filling niches in the U.S. labor market.”

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/11/25/new-immigration-policy-likely-to-block-many-family-immigrants/