TOPSHOT – A local woman stands next to a residential building damaged as a result of a missile attack in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. (Photo by Anatolii STEPANOV / AFP) (Photo by ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images)
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A peace-at-any-price deal in Ukraine would be a catastrophe for us and the rest of the Free World. President Trump deserves praise for doggedly pursuing peace in all parts of the world, with some stunning successes. However, the biggest, most important and unresolved conflict is the bloody war in Ukraine.
The danger is in pushing a plan that would lead to Russia’s ultimate subjugation of Ukraine. This would have horrific consequences not only in Europe but also in Asia and elsewhere.
Make no mistake, our allies will see a peace that is forcefully imposed on Ukraine as flawed and prime evidence that the U.S. lacks the strategic vision to keep the world safe from the ugly, imperial ambitions of our adversaries. They will sadly and anxiously conclude that the steadfastness the U.S. showed during the 40-year Cold War no longer exists, and therefore, the world will become less stable and less prosperous.
Beijing will feel free to pursue its ongoing efforts to establish de facto control of the South China Sea, a critical waterway for international commerce, and to institute a modern version of the old tribute system when other states kowtowed to China. Countries will increasingly feel the need to bow to Beijing’s wishes, since they couldn’t count on the U.S. to be a reliable counterweight.
The administration’s recent 28-point Ukraine peace plan reads like it was written by Putin himself. Ukraine would have to give up territory crucial to its defense, making it vulnerable to future attacks by Putin. The size of its armed forces would be capped. There would be no stationing of foreign troops in Ukraine to deter future Kremlin assaults. Security guarantees without such forces wouldn’t be worth the paper they were written on.
After all, in 1994 Russia promised to respect Ukraine’s independence in return for Kyiv’s giving up its nuclear weapons which it had had since the breakup of the Soviet Union. In 2015 the Kremlin, after seizing Crimea, agreed to a lasting ceasefire. Both agreements have been obscenely violated.
Fortunately, there has been blowback from a shocked Europe and security experts in Congress. Britain, Germany and France have now drafted a 24-point proposal calling for an immediate ceasefire before there can be any negotiations about Ukrainian territory. This proposal would tighten up security guarantees by opening up the possibility of placing friendly foreign forces in Ukraine, and would use the $300 billion of frozen Russian assets in Europe to rebuild a country shattered by Putin’s aggression.
Talks are currently taking place between the administration, Europe and Ukraine, but the likelihood of a plan that actually guarantees a truly independent Ukraine is nil. Putin believes he can realize his goal of subjugating Ukraine. He then could credibly threaten states that were once part of the Soviet Union, mainly Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. They would become vassal states of the Kremlin. Putin would also pressure Poland and other Eastern and Central European states. Putin hopes to shatter NATO, the bulwark that won the Cold War and kept Europe peaceful until his 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Putin’s plan is simple: drag his feet until the U.S. loses patience and forces a virtual Ukrainian capitulation. His minions will push stories that Ukraine, beset by corruption scandals, will inevitably lose this war, hoping that gullible Americans will overlook the truth of the horrendous losses Russia is suffering to gain territory, and the fact that if Kyiv were properly armed, it would push back the invaders.
President Trump must not fall into the fateful trap of a phony peace plan.