Cardano price risks drop to $0.30 as technicals flash warning signs

Cardano price stands at risk of dropping to its 2024 lows, with technicals largely pointing to a bearish outlook in the short term.

According to data from crypto.news, Cardano (ADA) has continued its downtrend for the fourth straight week, now down nearly 31% from its monthly high and 63% below its highest point this year.

The 11th-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has seen its market cap drop to $15.4 billion from $40.8 billion seen in January.

There are signs that Cardano could continue to extend its free fall over this year.

First, the total value locked on the network has been in a downtrend, dropping from $904.91 million seen in December last year to $251 million at the time of writing. Declining TVL is a telltale sign of weakening user participation and suggests that capital is steadily exiting the ecosystem.

Second, app revenue generated and the number of active addresses on the network have experienced a dramatic drop. Data from DeFiLlama shows that the weekly revenue generated from DeFi protocols on the Cardano network is down nearly 65% from its October levels. Additional data show that active addresses on the network this week have also plummeted nearly 92% from their December levels last year.

Declining app revenue and active addresses on the network mean fading activity on the network, which could likely prompt investors to look for other alternative projects with stronger fundamentals.

Even derivatives traders have reduced their positions on the asset. CoinGlass data show that Cardano futures open interest is at $710 million at press time, a sharp decline from $1.95 billion recorded in mid-September.

On the daily chart, technicals have turned bearish. Cardano price has fallen below the $0.51–$0.545 support range, which had previously acted as a reliable bounce zone during multiple phases of consolidation this year. Losing this area may indicate that further downside momentum is building.

At press time, Cardano was also priced significantly below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which recently formed a death cross after intersecting. This crossover is often viewed as a strong bearish signal by traders.

Hence, Cardano price could most likely drop to $0.30 next, a level that has acted as a strong floor during several sell-offs throughout 2024 and where bulls previously stepped in to defend against further declines. At press time, the said level stands roughly 28% below the current price at $0.42.

A bullish case could, however, develop if ADA manages to rebound back above $0.54, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and may open the door for a potential short-term recovery.