What happened to crypto market today – Mild recovery, but where is smart money?

Key Takeaways

What’s happening in the crypto market today?

Despite a mild rebound, extreme fear shows that broader capital hasn’t entered the crypto market today, keeping smart money cautious.

What signals suggest optimism?

Bullish signs like rising whale holdings and institutional interest in DOGE/XRP ETFs indicate the market still has upside potential.

The crypto market today registered a mild rebound. 

Bitcoin [BTC] retested $88,000, sparking debate over whether it has bottomed or if selling pressure is still weighing on the market. Ethereum [ETH] followed, climbing back above $2,800. 

All in all, has the market turned bullish?

Analyzing trends in the crypto market today

On the macro side, nearly $50 billion flowed into the crypto market over the last 24 hours. 

Notably, $30 billion of that went straight into Bitcoin. That’s 60% of inflows, a sign that traders are still favoring BTC over altcoins, keeping this cycle BTC-led. The result? The Altcoin Season Index slipped by 3 points to 39.

In short, the minor rebound of the crypto market today isn’t broad-based. The inflows seemed to be too concentrated, making it premature to call a market bottom yet, with the TOTAL index already down 0.38% intraday. 

Source: TradingView (TOTAL/USDT)

Simply put, the overall market participation has been cautious.

BlackRock, for example, has been selling aggressively, moving 2,822 BTC and 36k ETH into Coinbase Prime. On the ETF side, inflows for both BTC and ETH have been  flat, showing that big money isn’t jumping in yet.

Reinforcing this, the Fear and Greed Index ticked up just 2 points to 12. However, it’s still in “extreme” fear, matching market positioning, with 95% of 24-hour liquidations in the crypto market today coming from longs.

Market pause, not panic?

Despite bearish signals though, the crypto market today did see some signs of optimism.

On the institutional front, Grayscale’s Dogecoin [DOGE] and Ripple [XRP] ETFs grabbed attention, reinforcing confidence in digital assets. Backing this trend, a prominent analyst challenged the idea of a market top.

For one, 560k BTC flowed off CEXs, pushing reserves to an eight-year low. Meanwhile, whales holding over 10k BTC hit a five-month high – A sign that even in a risk-off environment, buying pressure didn’t quite disappear.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

In short, the crypto market today jumped on bid support. 

Alas, with institutional catalysts still missing, inflows concentrated in BTC, fear at extreme levels, and the Altcoin Season Index slipping, broader capital hasn’t entered yet. This is keeping smart money on the sidelines for now. 

So, while the crypto market today sparked some hope, it’s too early to call a bottom. The bright side – Bullish signals may be still intact, driving the rebound, with a market top nowhere in sight.