Bitcoin: Are too many longs the hidden trigger behind BTC’s recent crash?

Key Takeaways

What triggered Bitcoin’s sharp drop?

A historic imbalance where far more long contracts opened than shorts, creating excessive bullish leverage.

What supports Bitcoin’s current rebound?

Whale accumulation of 22,500 BTC and a positive Funding Rate suggest short-term upside—but risks remain below $81,900 support.

Bitcoin’s decline has gradually reversed, with the asset climbing to a recent high of $86,129, a modest 2.5% gain over the past day.

The recovery appears to be gathering strength; however, insights suggest that Bitcoin’s [BTC] sustained rally could still be subject to the same overlooked conditions that triggered its initial fall.

Optimism pushed Bitcoin off balance

Recent analysis by Joao Wedson suggests that the sharp downward acceleration resulted from the imbalance between long and short positions in the market.

He stated,

“BTC dropped quickly because we’ve never seen a moment in Bitcoin’s history where more longs were opened than shorts.”

The analysis focused on the volume of long and short positions on Bitcoin. It inferred that the large number of overly optimistic long investors, compared to short sellers, contributed to the price drop.

Source: Alphractal

In fact, most short positions have already been closed. Currently, about 71,000 BTC remain in long positions, while only around 27,900 BTC are held in short positions.

Joao noted that an upward rebound remains possible, but largely depends on a reversal, where more short contracts enter the market than long contracts.

Market enters a cooling phase

Amid this shift, Bitcoin has entered a cooling phase following its rebound over the past day.

AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests that the market could face a complete bearish breakdown if Bitcoin trades consistently below its True Market Mean value of $81,900, according to Glassnode, which now serves as its final support.

Source: Glassnode

At the moment, that level has held firm, with Bitcoin pushing upward to around $86,000. However, this does not confirm a sustained rebound, as temporary bounces often form within broader downtrends.

The derivatives market also indicates a cooling phase, with the Funding Rate returning to positive territory.

Currently, the Funding Rate stands at 0.0096%, suggesting that long traders are paying higher fees to maintain positions. Historically, this trend has aligned with short-term upward movement in the market.

A continued positive Funding Rate suggests the market could expand further, with additional gains recorded.

Are whales making the right bet?

Whales, wallets known for holding substantial liquidity, have already taken positions in Bitcoin following the decline.

Data shows that only whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC sold in the past 24 hours, while other segments moved into accumulation.

Source: CryptoQuant

So far, whales have collectively accumulated 22,500 BTC, valued at approximately $1.93 billion at press time. Continued accumulation at this level could set the stage for a broader market rally.