Many investors looking at Bitcoin’s latest pullback are bracing for a dramatic washout. But one crypto analyst argues the opposite: the downturn might already be close to exhausting itself — and the next leg higher could begin from a level far above where most bears expect.
- Bitcoin is expected to stabilize higher than many traders fear, with the likeliest floor projected between $70K and $80K.
- The pullback is viewed as a normal pause within a larger bullish cycle, not the start of a prolonged market collapse.
- Long-term conviction remains strong, with expectations of significantly higher valuations over the coming years.
Instead of warning about a crash into the $50,000s or lower, the analyst believes the market is shaping up for a controlled reset inside the higher price ranges. In his view, the biggest cluster of probabilities sits not in disaster territory but in an area that would still keep Bitcoin deep inside bullish long-term structure.
A Statistical Approach to Price Floors
His model visualizes the current correction as a probability curve rather than an emotional forecast. The curve peaks around the $70,000–$80,000 band, which he identifies as the most realistic zone for Bitcoin to finalize its bottom. Everything below that begins to show smaller and smaller likelihoods.
The analyst’s curve continues to taper: a dip to $60,000–$70,000 sits in the slim-chance category; $50,000–$60,000 drifts into unlikely territory; and anything under $50,000 is labeled borderline impossible — statistically speaking. Under that framework, $70,000 becomes the practical definition of the worst case rather than the catastrophic depths many fear.
The Long-Term Mindset
Interestingly, his outlook doesn’t come from someone trying to time every fluctuation. He openly states he doesn’t chase short-term entries or exits and considers Bitcoin a multi-year growth story rather than a trading instrument.
He said he wouldn’t even consider selling the majority of his holdings until he hits a 100x return on his cost basis, something he believes could realistically materialize five to ten years from now. From that perspective, he sees $126,000 — or any price near it — as nowhere near “expensive” when measured against his long-range target.
Cycle Peak Still Ahead, Not Behind
Another distinctive part of his thesis is timing. Bitcoin, he argues, hasn’t yet shown the behavioral markers of a cycle peak. His model places the true top sometime in 2026 or 2027, not in the current year, and he views the ongoing pullback as the middle portion of a larger upward cycle, not the end of one.
Despite that confidence, he still stresses that markets are probabilistic systems — not prophecies — and all targets remain subject to new data.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-cycle-peak-still-ahead-according-to-new-price-projection/