Key Insights
- Tom Lee told CNBC that the Nov 20 and Oct 10 crypto market crash could be explained by a technical glitch on an ‘exchange’.
- Hours after Lee’s CNBC interview, Crypto Banter’s Ran Neuner made a shocking revelation about Lee’s BitMine, Strategy, and similar Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).
- The technical glitch theory doesn’t fully explain either crash. Neuner’s analysis is a compelling reason to reassess risks associated with DATs.
After Thursday’s stock market and crypto market crash, Tom Lee appeared on a CNBC interview to discuss the crash.
The CNBC host asked the Wall Street veteran what led to the crypto market crash on November 20 from its peak and why it was in a downtrend since it peaked on October 6th.
According to Lee, on October 10th, a particular exchange’s automated deleveraging (ADL) feature got triggered erroneously, leading to massive liquidations, which contributed to the market crash that day.
However, markets continue to remain uncertain about the exact reason for crypto’s historic downtrend since October 10th.
A new analysis might change that, offering some clarity about what actually happened on October 10th.
OCT 10 Market Crash — A Low-Down on What REALLY Happened
Crypto Banter’s Ran Neuner, in an X post, revealed that on October 10th, 2025, the MSCI announced its decision to reconsider how it treats companies like MicroStrategy.
The MSCI also proposed to remove companies from its indexes if they hold 50% or more of their total assets in the form of digital assets. MicroStrategy perfectly fits the description in that proposal.
Neuner noted that mainstream media and even crypto media missed the MSCI update on that fateful day.
Morgan Stanley Capital International, or MSCI, is a global provider of indices, financial, and analytics services to institutional investors. MicroStrategy (MSTR) got listed on the MSCI World Index in May 2024.
MicroStrategy’s bitcoin (BTC) holdings are roughly 77% of the company’s total assets. However, Founder-Chairman Michael Saylor has brushed off concerns about a possible delisting.
Neuner shared that MSCI was consulting regarding its proposal and the consultation window is open till December 26th.
The index provider will announces its decision on January 15th – that is, whether MicroStrategy will be treated as a fund or a company.
MSCI’s indexes represent operational companies and not indexes. MicroStrategy started out as an operational company with its software business at its core.
However, Saylor eventually decided to shift MicroStrategy’s primary purpose to function as a Bitcoin treasury company.
Nuener claimed that on October 10th, while most of the market was unaware, Smart Money knew about the MSCI proposal and repositioned accordingly. He observed,
“DAT’s like MSTR, BMNR, and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle…Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.”
Binance Denied ADL Trigger Caused Crypto Market Crash on Oct 10
Tom Lee was echoing one of the prominent explanations (that a technical glitch triggered the crash) for the October 10 crypto market crash.
In the CNBC interview Thursday evening, Lee declined to take any names while explaining the crash.
In an October 12th statement, Binance admitted that a technical glitch caused de-pegging issues for certain crypto pairs.
The exchange reimbursed those earn product users who were impacted (liquidated) by the de-pegging.
Due to the glitch, the price of some crypto pairs on the exchange was displayed as $0 for many users.
However, the exchange explained that the market-wide crash happened due to global macroeconomic changes and not because of the glitch.
The exchange also stated that the forced liquidation cascade happened before the depegging glitch, showing the different time stamps for the two separate events.
Binance claimed that the forced liquidations formed a small percentage of the total trading volume of that day.
Why MSCI’s Jan 15 Decision is Super Important for Crypto
MSCI’s determination of whether to allow MicroStrategy on its indices could significantly alter the crypto market structure.
MicroStrategy holds 649,870 BTC, which is equivalent to $54.9 billion at the press time price of $84,532.
$9 billion outflows will be triggered in forced sellings if MSCI kicks out the DAT from its indices. This is because several passive funds track these indices.
Note that these passive funds, which include pension funds, track MSCI indices using algorithms. Therefore, the sell-offs will be automatic.
Neuner noted that if MicroStrategy gets an unfavorable decision on January 15th, the crypto market might see a bigger dump.
Ran added:
“It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.”
On the other hand, if the MSCI chooses not to delist the DAT, the crypto market could re-enter a ‘bull market’.
However, MicroStrategy’s stock performance and its BTC model metrics are not helping its case. The stock’s returns are at -56% over the year and -48% over the last three months.
The press time BTC price of $84,532 was just around 10% above MicroStrategy’s average purchase cost of its total BTC stash. MSTR was priced at $170 at press time, around 70% below its all-time high.
While Tom Lee’s BitMine (BMNR) is an Ether (ETH) treasury company. Its model is similar to MicroStrategy, which means MSCI’s decision will also apply to BitMine.
Nevertheless, both Lee and Saylor remain steadfast in their strategy for their treasury companies. Their statements have made it abundantly clear that they don’t intend to sell their BTC and ETH.