JPMorgan Withdraws December Fed Rate Cut Prediction

JPMorgan Chase has adjusted its forecast, retracting a December rate cut prediction by the Federal Reserve, aligning with Morgan Stanley’s updated outlook.

This decision reflects growing macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly influenced by the continued government shutdown and recent inflation data, potentially affecting financial markets and crypto volatility.

JPMorgan Delays Rate Cuts Amid Shutdown Uncertainty

JPMorgan Chase, following Morgan Stanley’s lead, has withdrawn its forecast for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, now projecting adjustments in early 2026. A previous prediction for a December cut was retracted as macroeconomic conditions became uncertain.

Market responses to these changes have been significant, with Treasury yields witnessing fluctuations and expectations for mortgage rates to stabilize slightly. Experts point out that historical shutdowns have often prompted cautious deliberation by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the importance of transparency and reliable data flow. These developments keep market participants alert as they anticipate the Fed’s next steps.

Kevin Hassett, Former Chair, Council of Economic Advisers, said, “Pausing cuts now would be a very bad time amid the government shutdown’s negative economic impact.” His comments underscore ongoing concerns about data availability and GDP performance, with a potential 1.5 percentage point dip in fourth-quarter GDP expected.

Shutdown Effects on Fed Decisions and Bitcoin Prices

Did you know? Historical government shutdowns that disrupted economic data often led to increased caution in Fed decision-making, similar to the current situation.

Bitcoin’s price has seen notable movements as of November 21, 2025. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC’s current price is $85,578.66, with a market cap of approximately $1.71 trillion and a dominance of 58.25%. Over 24 hours, the trading volume reached $99.27 billion, marking a 23.52% change. BTC experienced a 6.85% price decline in 24 hours, contributing to a longer trend of declines of 20.85% over 30 days and 26.04% over 90 days.

Analysis from the Coincu research team suggests that the situation surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions, coupled with the government shutdown, will likely alter investment strategies. Changes in economic forecasts often ripple through financial and cryptocurrency markets alike, affecting volatility and liquidity, particularly in high-cap assets such as Bitcoin.