Federal Reserve Rate Cut Prospects Uncertain Amid Market Confusion

Key Points:

  • Mixed September payroll data affects Federal Reserve rate cut decisions.
  • Rate cut probabilities for December stand at 32%.
  • Crypto markets see volatility with expected moves by major assets.

Financial institutions are reassessing a potential December Federal Reserve rate cut following September’s mixed non-farm payroll data, altering market outlooks for both traditional and crypto assets.

Diverging expectations on interest rates impact asset markets, with BTC and ETH experiencing volatility amid uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Conflicting Economic Signals and Institutional Forecasts

Financial institutions diverge in their expectations for a rate cut after mixed data from September’s non-farm payrolls. Rising unemployment has prompted XTB to predict a Federal Reserve rate cut, while others remain cautious.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management focuses on weak economic data and inflation close to the target as critical factors in Fed policy. Contrary views stem from recent hawkish statements and adjustments to market rate-cut expectations.

A December rate cut is far from a foregone conclusion.

This adds to the cryptocurrency’s price volatility, affecting high-beta assets like BTC and ETH.

Bitcoin Price Movement Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Did you know? In past instances, unexpected Federal Reserve policies have typically ushered in risk-off behavior in crypto markets, notably decreasing volatility for tokens like BTC and ETH.

According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $85,839.24 with a market capitalization of $1.71 trillion. Market dominance stands at 58.03%. The latest 24-hour trading volume reached $94.8 billion, declining by 7.18% over the last 24 hours.

bitcoin-daily-chart-4527

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 03:49 UTC on November 21, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Coincu’s research team notes the potential impact of a delayed rate cut on speculative and high-beta crypto assets, resulting in near-term volatility amidst macroeconomic uncertainty.

Source: https://coincu.com/markets/federal-reserve-rate-cut-uncertainty/