Analyst compares BTC’s “flat correction” and deep drawdown to the S&P’s 61% crash before its explosive bull run.
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A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is tracing a historic pattern last seen in the S&P 500 before a massive 200% jump.
This comparison points to a potential, though not yet certain, launch into a period of exponential growth for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
A Historical Blueprint for a Bull Run
In a detailed analysis, CrediBULL Crypto drew parallels between Bitcoin’s current price action and the S&P 500’s behavior between 2000 and 2008. The expert noted that both markets experienced mid-cycle tops characterized by extended periods of consolidation without a dramatic peak, called “flat corrections,” before starting the next major upward move.
Following these phases, the S&P 500 suffered a 61% drop, while Bitcoin saw a 76% decline, before each started its final, explosive rally. CrediBULL now says that BTC is at a stage similar to where the S&P 500 was just before it went parabolic, which was followed by a 200% price increase.
“On the SPX, just before we went parabolic, we saw a 37% correction to the downside. Which was immediately followed by new ATH and a 200+% rally off the lows to where we are today,” wrote the technician.
This optimistic outlook is coming at a time when the OG crypto is trying to find stability, currently trading around $92,000 after a difficult month that saw it fall over 14%. The comparison offers a counter-narrative to the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, suggesting the recent downturn may be a typical, though sharp, correction within a larger bull cycle rather than its end.
CrediBULL insisted that a break of a short-term ascending trend line does not signify a breakdown in overall market structure, cautioning that traders who exited the S&P 500 on a similar technical break missed the huge rally that followed.
For Bitcoin, the trader highlighted $74,000 as the line that truly matters, telling one follower that the “trend line isn’t relevant – 74k is.” Until then, they see BTC “hugging” its main trendline rather than starting the vertical part of the move.
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Market Sentiment and Diverging Views
The analyst community is divided on BTC’s immediate future. While the historical pattern offers a hopeful framework, other experts have pointed to lingering headwinds. One of them, Axel Bitblaze, observed that Bitcoin’s recent decline is quite similar to a pattern from early 2025, which ended in a final sharp shakeout. According to him, rising Japanese bond yields and liquidity issues at smaller U.S. banks could serve as potential catalysts for another downturn.
The market is also witnessing a flight of retail investors, with data from November 19 showing that small Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP wallets have been reducing their holdings, a behavior that, ironically, has often happened just before market recoveries.
Ultimately, the debate centers on whether Bitcoin is completing a final bearish shakeout or is on the cusp of a historic breakout. CrediBULL argues that the cryptocurrency, being a younger and faster-moving asset, could replicate the S&P’s parabolic move in a much shorter timeframe.
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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/analyst-bitcoin-is-repeating-the-pattern-behind-sps-200-rally/