MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – MAY 04: Shota Imanaga #18 of the Chicago Cubs throws a pitch in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on May 04, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
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So much for the Cubs entering the off-season with the financial flexibility to make multiple upgrades in their starting rotation.
Seemingly discarded by Jed Hoyer and the team’s front office earlier this month, left-hander Shota Imanaga accepted a qualifying offer from the team on Tuesday.
Instead of heading off for the free-agent market, he’ll return for a third season at Wrigley Field with a salary of $22.025 million.
While that’s less than the $27.5 million Jon Lester earned in 2018 and ’19, it represents a raise of 63 percent from his $13.5 million salary last season. That’s at the least a surprising development for a pitcher who went 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA in 13 regular-season starts after the All-Star break and failed to raise his performance in two postseason appearances.
After the Cubs declined a three-year, $57million option to keep Imanaga, the 30-year-old pitcher turned down a player option that would have paid him $30 million over two seasons.
By extending a qualifying offer to Imanaga, the Cubs tied his free agency to player compensation, possibly shrinking his market. That likely played a role in Imanaga deciding to return.
You wonder what the reaction was inside the Cubs’ offices when word of Imanaga’s decision came down. This was the gamble Hoyer took when he extended the qualifying offer and, depending on whether next season will bring the Imanaga of 2024 or ’25, it may have bit him.
As expected, the Cubs will get a compensation pick before the third round of the draft if they don’t re-sign Kyle Tucker. They extended him an offer knowing there was zero chance he would take it, as he is expected to seek a deal of at least eight years for more than $350 million.
Look no farther than Jaxon Wiggins to see the potential value of the Tucker pick. The tall (6-6) right-hander was acquired with the compensation pick awarded after Willson Contreras signed with St. Louis and ranks as the Cubs’ best pitching prospect.
There’s a world where Wiggins is sharp enough with his fastball-slider combination to earn a spot in the Opening Day rotation. More likely he’ll open 2026 at Triple-A Iowa with an eye on being in the mix in mid-season.
Wiggins has had a fast rise after Tommy John surgery ended his career at the University of Arkansas, holding opponents to a .161 average while striking out 97 in 78 innings across three levels last season. The Cubs paid him an over-slot bonus of $1,401,500 after taking him with the 68th pick. Wiggins offsets the second-round pick the Cubs lost for signing free agent Dansby Swanson.
The Cubs had two compensation picks in 2018 after allowing Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis to leave. The picks wound up with back-to-back picks deep in the second round, as Davis signed with Colorado and Arrieta going to Philadelphia. Neither of those picks (outfielder Cole Roederer and right-hander Paul Richan) have reached the majors.
During last week’s General Manager’s meetings in Las Vegas, Hoyer said the Cubs’ inventory of position players is deep enough they “could play a game tomorrow.” The Imanaga decision, along with the extension signed by 35-year-old Colin Rea earlier this month, gives the Cubs a five-man rotation to go along with the relatively set lineup.
Lefty Matthew Boyd, the 34-year-old reclamation project, is on track to return as the No. 1 starter. He can be followed by Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton and Rea, with Justin Steele working to get back after elbow revision surgery last April. Wiggins and Connor Noland are the most advanced arms in the wings.
Imanaga’s return means the Cubs have about $168.5 million committed for the Opening Day payroll. That’s about $46 million below the figure of $214.4 million to start 2024.
It seems prudent to point out that difference allows room for Tucker to return to his role in right field and the middle of the batting order but he looks like a one-and-done player in Chicago. The early plan seems to be to move Seiya Suzuki back to right field, which would make him happy, and look to entry-level hitters like Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros and Kevin Alcantara to move between the designated hitter spot and the field.
Hoyer will remain active attempting to improve the Cubs’ pitching through free agency and trades. But Imanaga’s arrival likely eliminates the chance he will be able to add a pair of established starters, which seemed like the goal after Imanaga declined his player option.
It’s possible the Cubs will be thrilled they held onto Imanaga (after all, he was 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA two seasons ago). He missed seven weeks with a hamstring issue last season, and the injury seemed to impact his performance.
The Cubs are only committed to Imanaga through 2026 but could do a new deal with him should both parties choose. One way or another, it seems imperative he gets off to a strong start next April or the series of decisions that led to his return could haunt Hoyer and the team he runs.