CAD needs catalyst to break trading range – Scotiabank

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed on the day and continues to hold within the trading range established around the 1.40 level, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

Intraday oscillator is flat

“The absence of any meaningful developments over the weekend for markets leaves investors with no incentive to move the CAD out of its range. Spot remains quite significantly overvalued at a little more than one standard deviation above out fair value estimate of 1.3854, however. Spot can’t get below the 1.40 area and struggled to hold gains towards 1.4050 late last week.”

“Price signals are mixed. The early November stall and reversal from 1.4140 left a bearish ‘shooting star’ signal on the weekly chart. But the daily chart reflects a bullish reversal last Thursday (outside range session) off the 40-day MA support (1.3991). Short-term trend signals are mixed; the daily DMI oscillator remains USD-supportive, although the signal is weaker.”

“The intraday oscillator is flat. Mixed trend signals suggest that choppy range trading may persist in the short run. A stronger sense of direction may emerge if the USD pushes above 1.4080 (to retest 1.4140/50) or pushes below 1.3980/90 and extends losses towards 1.3900/50.”