Key Insights
- Cardano price is holding near $0.49 while retail buying keeps rising, shown by higher lows on the MFI.
- Whales sold about 440 million ADA this month, equal to roughly $216 million in pressure, but selling has started to slow.
- A break above $0.54 could support a 12% rebound, while a fall under $0.47 may send ADA toward $0.40.
Cardano is still under pressure. The price trades near $0.49, and it even broke a support zone that held for most of 2024.
Crypto market has also been weak, so ADA has struggled to move on its own. Even then, a small rebound setup has started to form, and traders are watching if it can push the Cardano price toward $0.54, which is about 12% higher than here.
The conflict between retail buyers and large whale wallets sits at the center of this story. One group is buying dips. The other group is selling large amounts. Which side wins will decide Cardano’s next direction.
Retail Buying Surges While Cardano Price Falls
Retail traders have been buying ADA during the drop from 4–16 November. We can see this from the Money Flow Index (MFI).
MFI is a simple tool that shows if money is entering or leaving a coin.
During the same period when the price made lower lows, the MFI made higher lows. This usually means more people are buying the dips.
MFI also moved above its own downward trendline. That shows the buying has become faster in recent days.
This retail activity is the main reason the price has stayed close to $0.49 instead of falling straight to the next support.
Whales Sold 440M ADA?
Whales, which are very large wallets, sold almost 440 million ADA in the past month.
At today’s price near $0.49, this is about $216 million in sell pressure.
Charts show this drop in whale holdings clearly. While retail kept buying small amounts, whales were moving out. This is why ADA could not break higher, even with retail support.
One more issue comes from liquidity. A whale tried to swap 14.45 million ADA and lost about $6.2 million because there was not enough liquidity in the order books.
This means the market cannot handle very large sell orders cleanly. If ADA whales keep selling, the price can fall quickly. If whales slow down, retail may finally get the space it needs.
One Signal Still Supports the 12% Cardano Price Rise?
There is also an RSI divergence on the 12-hour chart.
RSI measures momentum. It shows when the selling or buying pressure is getting weaker.
From 4–16 November, ADA made lower lows. But the RSI made higher lows.
This pattern often appears before short rebounds. It does not say that a full recovery is starting, but it often shows that sellers are starting to lose strength for now.
For this short rebound to grow, ADA needs to stay near $0.49 and then move above $0.54 with clean candles. If the price slips under $0.47, the chart would point back to the lower range near $0.40, and the rebound idea would lose its support.
Some analysts also think a “big move” is coming because ADA broke a multi-year support line. A reclaim of $0.54 could even trap some whales who sold earlier.
For now, everything comes down to this simple conflict: retail accumulation versus whale distribution. Whichever side slows down first will decide if the Cardano price finally jumps 12% or slides toward lower levels.