TLDR
- Bitcoin briefly fell below its January 1, 2025 starting price of $93,507, hitting a low of $93,029 on Sunday
- The cryptocurrency is down 25% from its October all-time high of around $126,000
- Technical indicators show Bitcoin approaching a “death cross” pattern as the 50-day moving average nears crossing below the 200-day average
- Previous death crosses in this cycle have marked local bottoms rather than extended declines
- Bitcoin has since rebounded to around $94,209 after the weekend dip
Bitcoin dropped below its 2025 starting price over the weekend. The leading cryptocurrency fell to $93,029 on Sunday before recovering to around $94,209.
The decline pushed Bitcoin below the $93,507 level where it began the year. This marks a 25% drop from the all-time high reached in October.
The selloff comes despite the Trump administration forming what many consider the most pro-crypto government to date. Corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption has also expanded throughout 2025.
The US government reopened on Thursday after a record 43-day shutdown. Markets had expected this development to provide relief to cryptocurrency prices.
Technical Breakdown Signals Caution
Bitcoin has broken below its 50-week simple moving average. This level had served as reliable support multiple times since early 2023.
The breakdown mirrors recent price action in MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares. MSTR fell below its own 50-week moving average in September and has continued declining to October 2024 lows.
CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole notes the 50-week average at $102,868 has now become resistance. Any bounce attempts will likely face selling pressure at this level.
The technical setup suggests traders may shift from buying dips to selling rallies. This represents a change in market psychology after the support level failed.
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average at $110,669 is approaching the 200-day average at $110,459. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, it forms a “death cross” pattern.
Historical Pattern Offers Hope
Despite the bearish reputation of death crosses, each occurrence in this cycle has marked a local bottom. The pattern has appeared three times previously since 2023.
In September 2023, Bitcoin bottomed near $25,000 during a death cross. The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind saw support around $49,000 at another death cross.
April 2025 brought a bottom below $75,000 during tariff uncertainty. That correction lasted 79 days with Bitcoin falling 30% from January peaks.
The current correction has lasted 41 days so far. Bitcoin’s 25% decline remains less severe than the April drawdown.
Glassnode analysts describe whale selling as “normal bull-market behaviour” rather than an exodus. They note this distribution from older investors typically occurs during late-cycle profit-taking phases.
The 2019 government reopening provides the closest historical comparison. Bitcoin fell over 9% in the five days after that shutdown ended on January 25, 2019.
Recovery took approximately two weeks in 2019. Bitcoin has already dropped 10% since this week’s government reopening on November 12.
Other major cryptocurrencies have suffered alongside Bitcoin. Ether is down 7.95% from 2025’s start while Solana has dropped 28.3% year-to-date.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan maintains optimism for 2026. He cites the “debasement trade” thesis and growing adoption of stablecoins, tokenization and DeFi.
Bitcoin whales and OG holders have taken profits throughout 2025’s rallies. This selling has compressed upside momentum even during positive industry developments.
The former support at the 50-week moving average now acts as resistance. Weekly closes above $102,868 would be needed to signal renewed bullish momentum.
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