SUI is at a pivotal crossroads in 2025, testing a long-standing descending triangle that could determine whether the token reclaims its previous $5 all-time high.
A direct review of SUI’s multi-timeframe charts shows the price compressing within this critical pattern, which has guided its market behavior for nearly a year. Trading near $1.75 as of November 16, 2025, the token reflects broader market softness, but ecosystem developments—including the USDsui launch and sustained transaction activity—provide stabilizing support and suggest potential for renewed upward momentum
SUI Tests a Key Support Zone as Monthly Chart Signals Caution
A direct evaluation of the monthly chart highlights the $1.78 region as a pivotal structural support. This level sits near the mid-range of the multi-month volume profile and has repeatedly acted as a pivot during prior corrections. Importantly, SUI has delivered multiple higher-timeframe wicks into this zone without a confirmed candle close below it—evidence that buyers remain active even amid a 24% monthly drawdown.
$SUI is showing bullish momentum, potentially preparing for a breakout from $1.60 toward its $5 all-time high. Source: @x0mario via X
In previous cycles, SUI’s price behavior shows that retests of similar structural supports were followed by multi-week consolidation before attempts at recovery. While this pattern provides some historical context, on-chain participation has softened. According to publicly available DeFi analytics, Sui’s TVL has declined in recent weeks, suggesting risk-averse capital is temporarily sidelined despite growth in treasury metrics and utility infrastructure such as stablecoin integrations.
This combination—weak DeFi participation but strengthening ecosystem fundamentals—creates a mixed backdrop that traders should factor into any medium-term positioning.
Short-Term Technical Setup: Tracking Breakout Signals
On the 1-hour chart, a firsthand review shows SUI moving within a clearly defined descending channel, marked by lower highs forming on gradually diminishing volume. These volume contractions often precede expansion phases, though directionality remains uncertain. Attempts to reclaim the 100-period moving average have so far been met with resistance, while the RSI’s downward structure suggests seller dominance—though a curvature toward the upside is forming.
SUI is trading within a 1-hour descending channel with key support at $1.75, showing signs of upward momentum toward targets of $1.80, $1.84, and $1.88, with proper stop-loss and risk management advised. Source: CryptoAnalystSignal on TradingView
The green support zone around $1.75 has generated repeated micro-bounces, translating into short-term resistance targets at $1.80, $1.84, and $1.88. Traders using this range should consider volatility conditions: SUI’s intraday swings have widened slightly compared to late October averages. As a result, positioning strategies benefit from tighter invalidation levels—particularly for scalpers who rely on intra-channel rejections.
Price Projection: $1.35–$2.28 Range Based on Technical Models
Using Fibonacci retracement levels from the prior cycle, SUI’s key downside target of $1.35 aligns with the 0.618 retracement and the lower boundary of the broader range structure visible on the daily chart. This level has additional confluence with the lower 30-day volatility band, based on direct indicator readings.
Conversely, the $2.28 upper range is consistent with the 0.382 Fibonacci level and a significant horizontal supply zone where SUI previously faced multi-day rejections. Current volatility compression supports a high-probability scenario of SUI operating within the $1.35–$2.28 band unless an external catalyst breaks the structure.
Analysts remain divided: momentum-based models point toward a potential retest of the $1.35 support, while oversold indicators—particularly on the 4-hour chart—suggest stabilization may come first. Both interpretations remain technically valid until the price closes decisively outside the compression structure.
SUI Technical Indicators Point Toward Possible Consolidation
Multiple indicators point to an emerging consolidation phase. The RSI around 30 on the higher timeframes shows early oversold conditions, which often attract value-oriented traders. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram’s weakening downward momentum indicates a possible inflection point, though a bullish crossover has yet to form.
SUI is approaching a critical support level that must hold to maintain its current trend. Source:@RhythmicAnalyst via X
SUI currently trades near the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. Historically, Sui’s reversals tend to emerge when price interacts with these lower volatility bands, but this should not be interpreted as a guarantee. With the price still below both the 20-day and 200-day moving averages, any meaningful recovery will require sustained volume increases rather than isolated spikes.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios: What to Watch
A bullish scenario requires SUI to reclaim the $2.28 resistance level with strong buying volume. A breakout above this structure historically leads to multi-week expansions, with the next key upside target at $2.72. For such a move, traders should look for confirmation signals: RSI exiting oversold territory, MACD crossing upward, and volume profiles expanding.
The bearish scenario activates if SUI loses the $1.71 support on a closing basis. A break of this level—combined with rising sell-side volume—would increase the likelihood of a deeper move toward the $1.35 zone. If macro risk-off conditions intensify or if Sui ecosystem metrics weaken further, a temporary overshoot below $1.35 cannot be ruled out.
Should You Buy SUI Now? Contextual Entry Strategy
Entry strategies depend heavily on risk tolerance. Traders with higher risk appetite may treat current oversold conditions as an opportunity for near-term range trading, especially if the $1.75–$1.78 support continues to hold. Bucketing entries across multiple price levels can also reduce noise in volatile environments.
More conservative investors may prefer dollar-cost averaging, especially while the price remains within the broader triangle structure. Stop-loss levels below $1.60 align with the chart’s structural invalidation zones and help minimize exposure to potential breakdowns.
Looking Forward: Cautious Optimism if Key Supports Hold
Current data suggests SUI is likely to trade within the $1.35–$2.28 band in the near term as the market awaits a clear directional catalyst. The sustainability of the $1.75–$1.78 support zone will play a decisive role in determining whether SUI forms a recovery base or continues downward toward lower cycle levels.
Sui was trading at around $1.75, down 0.22% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
As Sui enters a critical stretch in December and January—periods that historically deliver strong volatility—the interaction between price, support stability, and transaction volume will shape both short-term reactions and the broader trajectory of Sui’s technical outlook.