Bitcoin’s Worst Q4 Since 2019 Sparks Volatility, Technicals Suggest Possible Relief Rally

• Bitcoin’s Q4 2025 performance has fallen below 2019 and 2022 levels, highlighting extreme volatility in cryptocurrency markets.

• Weekly charts display a bullish divergence where prices form higher lows against declining RSI, suggesting easing bearish momentum and a possible rebound.

• Market structure indicates a corrective phase, with critical support zones at $93,500 and $87,000–$83,500 drawing investor attention amid ongoing declines.

Bitcoin’s worst Q4 since 2019 unfolds with sharp price drops and volatility. Discover technical signals for recovery and key support levels to watch. Stay informed on crypto trends for smarter investing decisions.

What is Bitcoin’s Q4 Performance in 2025?

Bitcoin’s Q4 performance in 2025 marks its weakest since 2019, with prices declining sharply due to intense market volatility and uncertainty among holders. This quarter’s returns have dipped below historical lows from 2019 and 2022, reflecting broader cryptocurrency sector challenges. Despite the downturn, technical indicators hint at potential stabilization and relief rallies ahead.

How Do Technical Indicators Suggest a Potential Bitcoin Bounce?

Technical analysis on Bitcoin’s weekly charts shows a clear bullish divergence, where price action forms higher lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) records lower lows. This pattern, as noted by analyst Kamran Asghar, indicates weakening bearish pressure and could signal an impending relief move. Historical data from similar setups in bull market corrections often precedes multi-week recoveries, with bearish momentum compressing rather than expanding.

Key support zones around the mid-$90,000 level serve as pivotal areas. If Bitcoin maintains this threshold, it may target resistance at $105,000 to $110,000. However, a breach below the trendline could extend the correction toward the mid-$80,000 range, according to chart patterns observed in recent trading sessions.

The RSI’s behavior underscores this divergence, pointing to oversold conditions that have historically led to bounces. Trading volume has also shown signs of stabilization, further supporting the case for a near-term reversal if sellers exhaust their positions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Factors Are Driving Bitcoin’s Worst Q4 Since 2019?

Bitcoin’s poor Q4 2025 performance stems from heightened volatility, profit-taking by long-term holders, and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting risk assets. Compared to 2019’s downturn driven by regulatory fears, this period echoes similar pressures with added influence from global economic shifts, leading to a roughly 20-30% quarterly decline based on recent trading data.

Where Are the Key Support Levels for Bitcoin in This Correction?

The primary support for Bitcoin sits at $93,500, with deeper levels at $87,000 to $83,500 if selling intensifies. These zones align with historical trendlines and Fibonacci retracement points from prior rallies. Holding above $96,000 could preserve bullish structure, allowing for a measured rebound, as confirmed by multiple technical analyses.

Key Takeaways

• Seasonal Weakness: Q4 has averaged +77% returns historically, but 2025’s volatility has flipped this to a decline worse than 2019.
• Bullish Signals: Divergences on RSI and price charts suggest bearish exhaustion, potentially leading to a bounce from current lows.
• Watch Supports: Monitor $93,500 closely; a break could target lower zones, while a hold might spark recovery toward $100,000+.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s Q4 performance in 2025 stands as the weakest since 2019, driven by sharp declines and volatile market conditions that test historical seasonal strengths. Technical indicators, including bullish divergences and key support at $93,500, offer hope for relief amid the correction. As cryptocurrency markets evolve, investors should track these levels closely for signs of recovery. Stay vigilant with ongoing analysis to navigate future opportunities in Bitcoin and broader crypto trends.

Bitcoin hits its worst Q4 since 2019 as prices decline sharply, technical setups suggest potential relief and key support levels.

• Bitcoin’s Q4 performance drops below 2019 and 2022 levels, reflecting heightened volatility across crypto markets.
• Weekly bullish divergence pattern is showing higher lows while RSI trends lower, indicating weakening bearish pressure and potential near-term recovery.
• Structure signals a deeper corrective phase, with key support zones around $93,500 and $87,000–$83,500 under market focus.

Bitcoin prices have fallen sharply, reflecting intense market volatility and uncertainty among long-term holders. This quarter’s performance now ranks below previous notable declines and has recorded its worst Q4 performance since 2019.

Historical Bitcoin Quarterly Trends

Bitcoin’s quarterly returns reveal strong seasonal patterns, with Q1 and Q4 traditionally showing the highest gains. Q1 includes explosive rallies like 2013 (+539%) and 2021 (+103%), though it has also seen major drawdowns, such as 2018 (–49%).

Q4 historically remains the most consistent quarter with an average return of +77%, featuring several triple-digit surges. Q2 has been the most unpredictable for Bitcoin, producing huge gains like 2019’s +159% but also steep losses, such as 2022’s –56%.

Q3 usually has weaker performance, with average gains around +6%.

Trends from 2022 to 2025 have been increasingly volatile, while year-end momentum has historically fueled strong Q4 rallies, the current is downturned and is testing that pattern.

Technical Indicators Signal Potential Bounce

Technical charts are showing signs of a potential relief move despite current declines. Kamran Asghar noted a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, with price higher lows contrasting lower RSI lows.

Bearish pressure is easing on the charts, suggesting that sellers may be losing control around support zones. The mid-$90k acts as a critical level; if Bitcoin holds this key area, it could try to climb toward previous resistance around $105k to $110k.

However, a drop below the trendline could push prices down toward the mid-$80k range. Weekly momentum measures, including the RSI, point to compressed downside movement rather than expanding bearish pressure.

Historical occurrences of similar divergences during bull-market corrections have often preceded multi-week relief rallies.

Market Structure and Support Zones

Recent price movements indicate that Bitcoin has slipped below its established support channel, showing a shift in market structure. A breakdown near $103,500 pushed the price into a corrective phase.

Bitcoin is now trading around $96,000. Two possible scenarios emerge from technical analysis: a minor rebound toward $100,500, but rejection could push Bitcoin further down to $93,500 or even $87,000 and $83,500 in case of a deeper decline.

This market activity reflects fading bullish strength and heightened volatility after earlier rallies. Relief bounces remain possible, yet the overall directional trend leans toward continued correction unless Bitcoin regains support above $103k.