Bitcoin’s latest downturn has reignited fear across the market, but analysts argue that the current drop may be part of a much larger bullish pattern rather than the start of a prolonged crash.
Key Takeaways:
- Shutdown volatility repeats the 2019 post-shutdown crash pattern.
- Cycle structure still aligns with 2017 – seven dips complete before a blow-off top.
- Dips are getting smaller, signaling compression before expansion.
- $92K–$96K remains the key zone that could decide the next major move.
The leading cryptocurrency slipped to around $95,800 after a sharp sell-off triggered by renewed macro uncertainty and the aftermath of the U.S. government shutdown. Just like in 2019, price action immediately after the shutdown appears turbulent, with historical charts showing that Bitcoin also suffered a steep drop once government activity resumed.
Shutdown Turbulence Echoes 2019
The renewed volatility mirrors the post-shutdown correction seen in 2019, when Bitcoin fell sharply in the first days after operations resumed. Crypto Rover highlighted that the current drop may not be an anomaly but instead a recurring pattern tied to sudden macro resets. Traders, however, are split on whether the turbulence will be short-lived or the beginning of a deeper phase of capitulation.
Despite the panic, market analysts warn that this part of the cycle often shakes out short-term traders before momentum re-accelerates. One of the most widely discussed comparisons comes from EGRAG Crypto, who suggests that the 2017 cycle and the current 2025 cycle follow an almost identical blueprint.
According to his model, both cycles formed seven major dips before entering a blow-off top. In 2017, those dips averaged roughly 37 percent, while the current cycle has recorded seven declines averaging about 25 percent — smaller drops, but with the same repeating rhythm of compression and setup.
#BTC Cycle Check ✅ → $175K Loading…
Both the 2017 cycle and the 2025 cycle share the same blueprint:
🟢7 major BTC dips before the blow-off top
▫️2017 average dips: ~37%
▫️2025 average dips: ~25%🟢Different depth, same rhythm:
We’ve in the process of completing the… pic.twitter.com/myGJ2KRAk2— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 14, 2025
Final Dips Signal Compression Phase
The final three dips of both cycles show near-identical behavior. Bitcoin fell 39 percent, 41 percent, and 33 percent late in the 2017 run, while the 2025 cycle has seen equivalent drops at 30 percent, 32 percent, and 28 percent. EGRAG argues that the pattern of declining dip severity suggests that volatility is compressing and pressure is quietly building beneath the surface.
In the 2017 cycle, this structure preceded the explosive 85-degree rally that drove Bitcoin to its blow-off top. His long-term projection continues to call for a surge toward $175,000 once the expansion phase triggers.
Short-term technical signals indicate that bearish momentum may be losing force. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is deeply oversold, with the RSI hovering around 35 while the MACD has begun flattening after weeks of downside momentum. This can signal an early inflection point, although a confirmed trend reversal has yet to materialize.
Traders are watching the $92,000–$95,000 zone closely, as a strong rebound from this region could establish the final higher low before a breakout attempt.
Macro Pressure and Sentiment Still Weighing
While structure favors a bullish continuation, macro uncertainty continues to influence market psychology. Leverage has been flushed out, open interest has sharply declined, and sentiment is cautious — conditions that historically align with the early expansion phase of Bitcoin bull markets. The question now is whether the market will replay its 2017-style trajectory or whether global economic uncertainty overrides cyclical patterns.
Bitcoin is attempting a mild recovery from its daily low and is trading near $95,800 at the time of writing. A decisive reaction in the $92,000–$96,000 range will determine whether the current dip becomes a launchpad for the anticipated parabolic phase or a signal of broader downside risk.
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