AI sets odds of Bitcoin hitting another record in 2025

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face bearish sentiment, crashing below the $100,000 spot, an artificial intelligence model has set odds of the asset hitting another record high before the end of the year.

Notably, as of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $95,731, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours, and almost 6% lower on the timeline. At the current price, the cryptocurrency is down about 25% from its all-time high of $126,000.

Bitcoin’s fundamentals to record high 

To gauge the odds of Bitcoin hitting a new high, Finbold sought insights from OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which outlined several catalysts for achieving this milestone. 

The tool noted that strong institutional demand and exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows could add $5 to $10 billion in buy pressure, while macroeconomic tailwinds, such as potential Federal Reserve easing or favorable economic data, may lift risk assets. 

Historically, Bitcoin has also shown late-year strength following halvings, particularly if liquidity conditions are supportive.

On the bearish side, ChatGPT noted that Bitcoin’s recent breakdown below $100,000 signals short-term weakness. With only 1.5 months left in 2025, BTC would need a roughly 30% gain to surpass its previous high. 

Broader macro and market risks, including interest rate volatility, geopolitical shocks, or liquidity constraints, further limit upside potential.

Odds of Bitcoin’s new record high 

Technically, the AI estimates a 60% chance of a short-term bounce above $100,000, but only a 35% probability of sustaining a rally to $126,000 within the remaining timeframe. 

Adjustments for institutional flows and regulatory clarity slightly improve these odds, yet the compressed window tempers expectations.

The final assessment by ChatGPT is that Bitcoin has a 30% to 35% chance of hitting a new all-time high before December 31, 2025, while the probability of remaining below its previous peak or declining further stands at 65% to 70%. 

While not impossible, the analysis frames the opportunity as roughly a one-in-three scenario, reflecting the delicate balance between technical patterns, macro drivers, and limited time.

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