Crypto traders may be celebrating Bitcoin’s attempt to stabilize after slipping below $95,000 on Friday, but blockchain analytics firm Santiment cautions that the wave of optimism emerging across social platforms could be exactly the opposite of what a true bottom looks like.
- Santiment says bottom calls are usually a sign of relief rallies, not true reversals.
- Social sentiment has turned deeply negative even as more traders declare the bottom is in.
- Seasonal theories like the “Black Friday pattern” are gaining traction, reflecting uncertainty rather than clarity.
According to the firm, market lows tend to form during periods of peak pessimism, not after large numbers of traders publicly declare that the worst has passed. Santiment noted that conversations across X, Telegram, Reddit and Discord have shifted rapidly from fear to declarations that Bitcoin has “already bottomed,” with many users pointing specifically to the break below the $100,000 level as proof that capitulation has already happened.
Santiment argues the opposite. When bottom predictions become a trending topic, it typically implies that traders are expecting only upside from here — a sentiment pattern that historically precedes more downside rather than a recovery. The firm highlighted that social media activity shows the majority now anticipating a bounce instead of preparing for further weakness, which has often marked temporary relief rallies rather than the end of a cycle.
New Narratives Fuel Speculation Ahead of Black Friday
Adding to the charged atmosphere, new theories are circulating that attempt to align Bitcoin’s market rhythm with calendar dates and seasonal patterns. One of the most viral examples came from Crypto Rover, who pointed out that Black Friday in 2021 coincided with a double-top structure and marked the beginning of Bitcoin’s descent from its all-time high.
He notes that the next Black Friday — November 28 — is approaching with Bitcoin again showing signs of rounding near the top of a multi-month structure. Screenshots comparing the 2021 and 2025 market formations have fueled conversation that the retail frenzy period could become a psychological trigger point once again.
Black Friday in 2021 marked the beginning of the end after the double top.
The next Black Friday for Bitcoin falls on 28 November. pic.twitter.com/Lxmaj2WAAw
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 15, 2025
The post does not make a prediction by itself, but the reaction to it has been intense. Many retail traders see the comparison as proof that the bottom is already behind us and that the current correction is simply a part of a larger bullish pattern. Others have taken the opposite position, viewing the historical rhyme as a warning that another leg down could begin if sentiment becomes too confident too soon. What the debate really illustrates is not whether the pattern is valid but how desperately the market is hunting for certainty.
Fear Dominates — Yet Some Still Expect New Highs
The pessimism is not universal. Prominent industry voices like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee continue to forecast a major rally, with both reiterating their expectations that Bitcoin could still surpass $200,000 before the year ends. That divide between retail traders calling a bottom and analysts predicting a blow-off top has contributed to one of the most emotionally polarized environments Bitcoin has seen in months.
Nevertheless, Santiment’s data shows social sentiment remains deeply negative overall. The volume of positive comments about Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest point in more than a month, while negative posts dominate the feed. Bitcoin’s share of total crypto social attention has surged beyond 40 percent, signaling that fear surrounding the leading cryptocurrency has drowned out most other narratives in the market.
Narratives Accelerate as Traders Seek Someone to Blame
As prices fell, online speculation locked onto a single storyline: the idea that Michael Saylor might be selling. Mentions of his name spiked dramatically during the drop, despite no evidence supporting the claim. Santiment noted that such rapid shifts in blame-based narratives are another sign that emotions are driving the market rather than data.
The bigger picture is that sentiment indicators are flashing extremes on both sides. Traders calling for a bottom, influencers predicting a moonshot, and skeptics warning of another leg down are all dominating the conversation simultaneously. Santiment’s view is that true market bottoms rarely occur during moments of certainty, whether positive or negative — but rather in silence, when the majority has stopped trying to predict anything at all.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/experts-warn-bitcoin-bottom-calls-may-signal-more-pain-ahead/