BTC Faces Pressure as Open Interest Climbs and Price Weakens

• Bitcoin nears critical Fib support as sellers dominate while volatility expands.
• Rising leverage and strong open interest highlight speculative pressure on BTC now.
• Persistent ETF outflows signal heavy institutional caution as price weakens further.

Bitcoin continued to slide toward the lower end of its current trading range as sellers maintained control across major timeframes. The market is trading near $97,300, and price action reflects a steady decline since losing the mid-range structure earlier this month.

The broader setup now shows Bitcoin defending a crucial Fibonacci zone, while traders weigh weakening demand signals, rising leverage, and persistent ETF outflows. The overall landscape shows tightening conditions as volatility expands and buyers struggle to regain momentum.

Price Stalls Near a Key Technical Floor

Bitcoin is hovering above the $98,953 swing low, which marks the base of a large Fibonacci retracement measured from the $126,266 peak. This level remains the most important near-term support. Price action also shows consistent rejection from short-term barriers, including the 9 EMA and the Bollinger midline. 

These levels sit between $100,194 and $102,353 and continue to block intraday recoveries. Moreover, Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $105,387 Fibonacci level. That failure signaled early weakness and forced a decline back into the lower structure.

Besides these nearby levels, higher resistance areas remain unchallenged. These include $109,386 at the Fib 0.382 level, $112,609 at the mid-range equilibrium, and $115,832 at the deeper retracement zone. Each level acted as a turning point during earlier rallies. Hence, any recovery attempt must clear these zones before a sustained reversal forms.

Derivatives Show Elevated Participation

Bitcoin futures open interest has expanded steadily throughout the year. It climbed from the low $20 billion range to more than $60 billion by November. The build-up accelerated during sharp rallies, showing heightened speculative activity. 

By November 14, open interest reached $68.32 billion while Bitcoin traded below $100,000. This pairing suggests elevated leverage and strong trader engagement during increased volatility. Additionally, the trend shows deep liquidity in the derivatives market, with participants maintaining positions through pullbacks.

ETF Outflows Deepen Market Stress

Spot ETF flows continue to post significant outflows. These outflows have dominated most sessions since early in the year. Several days recorded losses above $500 million, which signaled heavy institutional selling. 

Recent data from November 14 showed another $445.04 million leaving the market. This aligned with Bitcoin’s drop toward $97,448. Consequently, sustained negative flows point to cautious sentiment across larger investors.

Related: Bitcoin Plunges to $100K as US ‘Data Blackout’ Prices Out Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin Price

Key levels remain clearly defined as Bitcoin trades inside a broader corrective structure.

Upside levels: $100,194 and $102,353 form the first intraday hurdles. A stronger recovery targets $105,387 (Fib 0.236), while a sustained breakout could extend toward $109,386 and $112,609. If momentum strengthens, $115,832 becomes the primary medium-term resistance before any retest of the $120,421 zone.

Downside levels: Immediate support sits at $98,953, which marks the major swing low of the current range. A breakdown opens the $95,900–$96,500 liquidity pocket, followed by deeper support at $93,000–$94,000. Losing these levels exposes the structure to a wider retracement toward the mid-$90Ks.

Resistance ceiling: The $105,387 Fibonacci level remains the key zone to flip for any credible bullish reversal. Price continues to trade below the 9EMA and Bollinger midline, confirming short-term bearish momentum.

The technical picture suggests Bitcoin is compressing inside a declining structure after losing the $105,000–$110,000 consolidation band. Volatility expands on each downside move, while lower highs and lower lows define the trend. A decisive close above $102,353 and then $105,387 could trigger a shift in direction.

Will Bitcoin Go Up?

Bitcoin’s next major move depends on how price reacts to $98,953. A successful defense of this level gives buyers room to challenge the $100,000–$102,400 cluster. A reclaim of $105,387 would break the current pattern and set the stage for a push toward $109,386 and $112,609.

Related: Bitcoin (BTC) Analysts Predict $170K Peak ‘Within 6 Weeks,’ Ignoring ‘Extreme Fear’ Now At 15

However, failure to hold $98,953 increases the probability of a deeper correction. Such a move exposes Bitcoin to the $95,900–$96,500 liquidity pocket before testing the $93,000–$94,000 base. If sellers maintain control, volatility could expand further during the next leg down.

For now, Bitcoin remains in a pivotal zone. Futures open interest continues to rise while spot ETF flows remain negative, adding pressure to the technical landscape. Short-term sentiment hinges on whether buyers can stabilize price above the current floor long enough to challenge overhead resistance.

The upcoming sessions will determine whether Bitcoin attempts a recovery or confirms a deeper retracement toward the mid-$90K region.