TLDR
- Morgan Stanley names Micron Technology its top pick and raises price target to Street-high $325, up from $220, implying 32% upside potential.
- DDR5 spot pricing has tripled in just over a month since Morgan Stanley’s initial upgrade, with the memory market showing conditions similar to the 2018 shortage.
- Morgan Stanley forecasts $25 in calendar 2026 earnings for Micron, expecting continued upward revisions as DRAM market dynamics strengthen.
- Double-digit price increases for DRAM are likely understated, with actual transactions occurring well above those levels.
- Micron has a Strong Buy consensus rating from 30 Wall Street analysts, with 27 Buy and three Hold recommendations.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Micron Technology to $325, the highest on Wall Street. The firm also named the memory chip maker its top pick.
Micron Technology, Inc., MU
Analyst Joseph Moore lifted the target from $220. The new price suggests 32% upside from current levels.
The upgrade comes as DDR5 memory prices continue climbing. Spot pricing for DDR5 has tripled in just over a month.
Moore said the memory market is entering “uncharted territory.” The conditions mirror the 2018 supply shortage, but Micron’s earnings are starting from a much higher base this time.
Memory Market Conditions Strengthen
The DRAM market is showing strength that reminds buyers of 2018. However, earnings are already at record levels now, unlike that previous cycle.
Morgan Stanley expects double-digit price increases for DRAM. The firm says actual transactions are occurring well above these levels.
Moore believes serial upward revisions will continue. These could start as soon as next week.
The bank upgraded Micron to Overweight just over a month ago. Since then, market conditions have improved faster than expected.
Earnings Forecast Rises
Morgan Stanley now forecasts more than $25 per share in calendar 2026 earnings. This figure sits well above current market estimates.
The firm sees conditions in DRAM leading to new highs in earnings power. Strong demand and limited supply continue driving prices higher.
Moore expects DDR5 prices to rise again over the next two quarters. Supply remains tight while demand stays strong.
Higher DDR5 margins will help offset any risks from HBM4 development. Moore said “it doesn’t really matter” given current pricing trends.
The analyst still views HBM as a key part of Micron’s AI strategy. Moore expects the company to stay competitive in the HBM4 market when next-generation chips arrive.
While valuations across the memory sector are elevated, Morgan Stanley believes Micron has room to run. The firm says the stock hasn’t fully priced in the upside that’s coming.
AI demand continues fueling optimism, though some anxiety remains. The bank expects both sentiment and earnings momentum to improve further into 2026.
Micron holds a Strong Buy consensus rating from 30 Wall Street analysts. The rating includes 27 Buy recommendations and three Hold recommendations assigned in the last three months.
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Source: https://blockonomi.com/micron-mu-stock-why-one-top-analyst-says-now-is-the-time-to-load-up/