Bias for upside play – OCBC

Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to inch higher, riding on the move higher in with metals complex and better than expected labor market report. Pair was last at 0.6577 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

AUD to trend higher for the time being

“Fulltime employment change rose 55.3k while unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3% (vs. 4.5% prior). One may argue that AU’s monthly labor market report can be volatile but broadly speaking, labor market tightness is normalizing and expected to remain stable.”

“Though RBA had previously raised the unemployment forecast a touch higher to 4.5%, the policymakers also do not expect labor market conditions to ease much further. This supports our view for RBA to be go on a longer pause before the final cut in 2Q 2026.”

“We retain bias for AUD to trend higher. Daily momentum shows tentative signs of turning mild bullish while RSI rose. Immediate resistance here at 0.6620/30 levels. Support at 0.6520 (21 DMA), 0.6455 (200 DMA).”