37M altcoins, ONE pattern – Why data hints at 2021-style alt rally

Key Takeaways

Is altcoin season dead?

Altcoin season was under threat following dilution of capital from the many alts that have surpassed 37 million.

Will the 2025 altcoin season be bigger?

Pattern repetition could result in a much bigger altseason.

Bitcoin [BTC] and the broader crypto market have struggled since the 10th of October flash crash, with altcoins taking the biggest hit, especially Layer 1s, Layer 2s, memecoins, and gaming tokens.

The sheer number of altcoins has diluted market momentum, creating conditions reminiscent of 2021 when altcoins dominated. Despite shifting narratives, technical chart patterns suggest a similar performance may be unfolding.

However, unlike previous cycles, the typical four-year bull run that usually gains traction in the final quarter has yet to align this season.

Weekly performance of top crypto caps

Since the 6th of November, Dogecoin [DOGE] has led the weekly performance of altcoins among the top ten cryptos, excluding stablecoins.

Cardano [ADA], Ripple [XRP], Chainlink [LINK], and TRON [TRX] completed the top 5 gainers in this list. However, Solana [SOL] and Hyperliquid [HYPE] lost 1% and 1.40%, respectively, during this period.

This performance came after the market had dropped hard.

These coins accounted for 90% of the entire crypto cap, while the top 50 made up 98% of the total cap. They represented a fraction of the more than 37 million coins that make up the entire market.

Source: TradingView

This observation led to the unpopular belief that the “altcoin season” might never return. This was due to the dilution of capital, which was limited to pump all the altcoins in existence.

However, this notion was not entirely true, as some sectors were doing well amidst this market downturn.

Which narratives will survive?

The AI and DeFi sectors led the market in price performance, posting gains of nearly 40% over the past week.

In contrast, other sectors saw gains below 30%. While Layer 1s (L1s) initially showed strength, AI tokens ultimately outperformed, rising by 50% as of press time.

Source: X

While only the top caps were more likely to survive, the total cap was eliciting similarities with the 2021 season.

Will history repeat in 2025?

On the charts, the altcoin market cap was looking to repeat the 2021 season. This negates the prediction that the altcoin season could be dead.

This is likely due to the potential repetition of historical patterns.

Source: Bitcoinsensus/X

If the pattern repeats, the total altcoin market cap could more than double. This would mean it would be bigger than that of 2021. However, the dilution of the capitalization in this sector could derail such a move.