Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off Hits $43 Billion, Raising Recovery Concerns Amid ETF Outflows

• Bitcoin OG whale Owen Gunden sold 700 BTC on November 11, part of a $200 million dump this week.

• Long-term holders have accelerated sales since July, reducing holdings significantly and contributing to market headwinds.

• ETF outflows hit 31,000 BTC in November, mirroring weak sentiment with options data signaling potential drops to $96k or lower.

Discover the Bitcoin LTH sell-off’s impact on prices in 2025, with whale dumps and ETF trends analyzed. Stay informed on BTC recovery signals and expert insights—read now for actionable crypto strategies.

What is the Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off and Why Does It Matter?

The Bitcoin LTH sell-off refers to the widespread distribution of Bitcoin by long-term holders—those who have retained BTC for over five months—leading to increased supply pressure on the market. In November 2025, this activity intensified, with holders offloading approximately 414,000 BTC valued at $43 billion, exacerbating a price decline from a peak of $126k to current levels above $100k. This trend, highlighted by on-chain data from platforms like CryptoQuant, underscores shifting holder behavior amid evolving market dynamics, potentially delaying Bitcoin’s recovery unless countered by strong buying interest.

How Are OG Whales Contributing to the Bitcoin LTH Sell-Off?

Original gangster (OG) whales, early Bitcoin adopters with substantial holdings, have been pivotal in the Bitcoin LTH sell-off. For instance, prominent trader Owen Gunden, a long-time Bitcoin holder, transferred another 700 BTC via Kraken on November 11, 2025, as part of a broader weekly sale totaling 1,800 BTC worth $200 million. Data from Arkham Intelligence reveals Gunden has reduced his portfolio from over 11,000 BTC—valued at about $1.4 billion in October—to roughly 5,350 BTC, or $560 million, since accelerating sales last month. This pattern aligns with wider LTH behavior, where realized monthly averages show consistent outflows starting from July 2025, deepening in October and now contributing to second-half headwinds.

Source: Arkham

While Gunden’s sales approach depletion, similar moves by other OG whales could prolong the Bitcoin LTH sell-off, testing Bitcoin’s resilience. On-chain metrics indicate that these distributions often coincide with periods of market maturation, where early holders realize gains after years of accumulation. However, the scale in late 2025—amid global economic uncertainties—amplifies risks, as evidenced by a 30-day net position change showing negative LTH flows.

Source: CryptoQuant

Counterarguments persist: Bitcoin achieved a $126k high in October despite ongoing sales, suggesting underlying demand can offset pressure. At the onset of the second half of 2025, robust institutional inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries absorbed much of the supply. Recent shifts, however, have flipped this balance, with demand indicators turning negative and compounding the Bitcoin LTH sell-off effects.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is causing the current Bitcoin LTH sell-off in 2025?

The Bitcoin LTH sell-off stems from long-term holders realizing profits after a strong bull run, accelerated by OG whales like Owen Gunden. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows monthly outflows averaging 414,000 BTC in November, totaling $43 billion, amid weakening ETF demand and broader market caution triggered by economic factors.

Can Bitcoin recover from the LTH sell-off pressures?

Bitcoin’s recovery from the LTH sell-off appears feasible if ETF inflows resume and institutional buying strengthens, as seen earlier in 2025. Currently trading near $105k, BTC faces downside risks to $96k based on options hedging, but historical patterns indicate resilience once demand rebounds, potentially stabilizing above $100k in the near term.

Key Takeaways

• OG Whale Activity Intensifies Sell-Off: Owen Gunden’s $200 million BTC dump this week highlights accelerated LTH distributions, reducing his holdings by nearly half since October.
• ETF Outflows Mirror Weak Sentiment: November saw 31,000 BTC in negative flows, echoing early 2025 tariff-related pressures and amplifying price headwinds from $126k highs.
• Options Market Signals Caution: Traders are hedging for drops to $85k-$96k by year-end, with limited bullish calls at $108k, underscoring expectations of further correction below $100k.

Source: CryptoQuant

LTH Dump Hits $43 Billion

The Bitcoin LTH sell-off has escalated dramatically, with long-term holders distributing around 414,000 BTC—equivalent to $43 billion—on a monthly basis in November 2025. This surge in supply began building in July and peaked in intensity during October, contributing to persistent downward pressure that has pulled Bitcoin’s price from $126k to levels just above $100k. Analysts from CryptoQuant note that such outflows represent a maturation of the holder base, where early accumulators lock in gains after multi-year holds.

Despite the volume, Bitcoin’s ability to reach new highs earlier in the year amid similar activity suggests that demand-side factors play a crucial role. In the first half of 2025, ETF inflows and corporate adoption provided a buffer, absorbing sales without significant price erosion. Recent data, however, paints a different picture: ETF outflows have climbed to 31,000 BTC for the month, closely tracking the subdued market mood reminiscent of early-year trade tensions.

Source: Arkham

Options Data Signals Caution

Amid the Bitcoin LTH sell-off, apparent demand metrics have weakened, making whale distributions more visible in Bitcoin’s fading momentum. A potential rebound in ETF inflows could alleviate the ongoing pullback, but current indicators point to heightened trader caution. As of late November 2025, Bitcoin hovered at $105k, with options market activity revealing a surge in put buying—bearish positions for hedging against declines as low as $85k by year-end.

Volumes in the options arena, tracked by Arkham, show concentrated interest in downside protection targeting $96k for near-term expiries. Bullish call options, which bet on upside, were minimal, limited to strikes around $108k over the last day. This skewed activity reflects growing consensus for an extended correction dipping below $100k, influenced by the interplay of LTH sales and faltering institutional support. Market participants, drawing from historical precedents like the 2022 downturn, emphasize monitoring ETF flows as a key barometer for reversal signals.

Broader context from on-chain analytics firms like CryptoQuant reinforces that while LTH sell-offs are a natural cycle in Bitcoin’s evolution, their timing in late 2025—coupled with macroeconomic headwinds—could test short-term price floors. Experts, including those cited in recent reports from Glassnode, advise diversified strategies, noting that long-term BTC adoption trends remain intact despite transient pressures.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin LTH sell-off, now totaling $43 billion in November 2025, exemplifies the dynamic balance between supply releases from OG whales like Owen Gunden and institutional demand via ETFs. With outflows mirroring early-year weaknesses and options data favoring caution toward $96k, Bitcoin’s path forward depends on renewed inflows to counter the pressure. As the market navigates these headwinds, staying attuned to on-chain metrics from sources like CryptoQuant and Arkham will be essential for informed positioning, potentially setting the stage for a robust recovery in the coming months.