The AES Corporation 495-megawatt Alamitos natural gas-fired power station in Long Beach, California.
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Fossil electricity is electricity produced from gas-fired or coal-fired power plants. A new report by Ember Energy shows that global fossil electricity did not grow in the first three quarters of 2025. This is the first time it has retreated since the Covid pandemic of 2020. The report projects the same result will be true for the whole year of 2025. How can this happen when fossil electricity is increasing by two big users: the U.S. and the EU? And what will it mean for the U.S. who is facing a critical shortage of electricity needed for data centers and AI?
Electrical Generation By The Numbers.
Table 1 gives the numbers for global electricity growth over Q1 – Q3 in 2025. Solar monstered all the rest, followed by wind. Solar and wind renewables together exceeded the demand for electricity growth, which is a telling statistic, given that electricity demand will keep rising, and probably rise even faster than now. Fossil electricity declined, but by a miniscule fraction. Nuclear growth was only 1.7% and this was all in China. For the U.S. and EU, new nuclear is at the starting gate in the race to provide power for data centers, while right now solar and wind together approach 40% growth rate (see table).
Another telling statistic is the fraction of total global electrical production (not growth rate), in the last two lines of the table. Solar and wind together provide 18% while fossil provide 57% of worldwide production. So, while solar and wind are surging in 2025, coal and gas still do the heavy lifting. History tells us that fossil energies enabled the economies of the west in the past, and they are still growing the economies of China, India, and South-east Asia.
According to Ember, if all low-carbon resources are added together, including solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, bioenergy and geothermal, they total 43% of the world’s total electricity, and outgrew coal generation of 33% in Q1 – Q3 of 2025. Low-carbon resources will continue to beat down coal.
Where Is Electrical Growth Occurring?
You guessed it: China. In solar power, China added 280 TWh that is more than half of the 498 TWh increase (see Table 2). China eclipsed the U.S. who added 72 TWh, and the EU who added 51 TWh. There is no question China is dominating in generating clean electrical power. But they are also dominating in selling clean tech equipment. 80% of the world’s solar panels, and 60% of the planet’s wind turbines, are produced in China. The country also supplies 70% of the world’s EVs and 75% of batteries. All this may have geopolitical repercussions that disadvantage the U.S., since cheap clean electricity will be a big part of the global revolution in datacenters and AI.
China (102 TWh) also dominated wind power increases of 137 TWh in Table 1. U.S. increases were smaller in Table 2, and EU production actually fell. Most of the nuclear growth of 33 TWH occurred in China (30 TWh). If the rest of the world decides on nuclear to provide its AI, it will be starting way back in the AI race, but it is widely accepted that nuclear power will be more expensive.
Where Do The U.S. And EU Stand?
In the U.S. new solar dominates, with wind a distant third. Fossil electricity has jumped due to accelerated demand by data centers. But solar and wind renewables combine for 76 TWh which is over six times the increase of fossil electricity in Table 2.
In the EU, solar jumped. But wind and hydro dropped due to unusual weather conditions. To compensate, fossil electricity jumped.
Table 2 also reveals that solar electricity in China dominates the U.S. and the EU. Of all types of power, solar has a well-established growth future, thanks to China, provided grid-scale batteries are installed for electricity storage (BESS). Wind has not grown much in the U.S. and has fallen back in the EU. Nuclear has grown only in China.
Fossil power fell greatly in China, by 52 TWh, and was a surprise. Fossil power also fell in India, by 34 TWh. These falls in China and India are remarkable, according to Ember, since previous years have shown steady growth. But there is a reason for this. Electricity for air conditioning peaked in the year before, when heatwaves frequented the summer of 2024 in China and India, according to Ember.
The situation may be a tipping point. Fossil power falls in China and India offset smaller increases in U.S. and EU. At the same time, clean power met all new demand. As stated in the report, “Ember forecasts no growth in fossil generation for the full year of 2025, marking the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic that fossil power will not have risen despite growing electricity demand.” But there is a caveat. The report admits that 2026 will define whether this trend will continue and if the rise of clean power causes fossil power to stay flat or decline.
Conclusions.
2025 is expected to see the sixth largest absolute increase in electricity demand ever at 831 TWh—compared with 603 TWh in Table 1.
Solar renewables are driving growth in the global power sector. Worldwide success of solar and wind will continue to allay the need for fossil power. Wind and solar renewables are growing fast, and they are forecast to meet all new demand for electrical power: the generation of fossil electricity will be flat in 2025 compared with 2024. This will be the first time since the Covid pandemic of 2020.
The U.S. in 2025 is reliant on renewables (mainly solar) and fossil power. But the federal government is putting its new eggs in another basket, nuclear, which is at the starting gate, and is projected to be much more expensive than renewables, meaning electricity prices will go up for consumers.