Morgan Stanley strategists believe Bitcoin has entered what they call the “fall season” of its four-year cycle — a stage typically followed by a major market cooldown.
Key Takeaways
- Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin is in the “fall season” of its cycle, signaling time to take profits.
- BTC dropped below its 365-day moving average, confirming a technical bear phase.
- Glassnode data shows patterns similar to past cycle tops.
- Liquidity inflows from ETFs and stablecoins have stalled.
- Institutions still view Bitcoin as a hedge despite volatility.
According to the bank’s investment strategist Denny Galindo, this phase may be the last opportunity for investors to take profits before the onset of a potential crypto winter.
Speaking in the latest Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Galindo explained that Bitcoin’s historical rhythm resembles a “three-up, one-down” pattern — three years of growth followed by one year of correction. “We are in the fall season right now,” he said. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”
The analogy underscores how traditional financial institutions are increasingly treating Bitcoin as part of broader market cycles, similar to commodities or liquidity-driven macro trends.
Bitcoin Flashes Early Bear Market Signal
Bitcoin’s latest dip below $99,000 on November 5 reignited bearish discussions after breaching its 365-day moving average — a level often viewed as the dividing line between bull and bear trends. According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, the drop marked a shift in macro sentiment. Analysts at Bitrue added that this decline “officially marked a technical bear market.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $104,700, which also shows price behavior beginning to mirror the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles. If history repeats, the top may have occurred on October 26, suggesting a macro downtrend could already be underway.
Liquidity Drivers Lose Momentum
Crypto market-maker Wintermute highlighted in a recent report that major liquidity sources such as stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries (DATs) have stalled. These three sectors previously provided steady capital inflows, but their plateau could be a warning sign that new liquidity is drying up across crypto markets.
Still, not all institutional players are pessimistic. Despite volatility, large investors continue to see Bitcoin as a viable hedge against inflation and monetary debasement.
Institutional Interest Remains Strong
Michael Cyprys, head of U.S. brokers, asset managers, and exchanges at Morgan Stanley Research, said during the same podcast that “some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or a macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement.”
He noted that ETFs have helped bring more legitimacy and accessibility to crypto exposure, though large institutions typically move slower due to internal risk controls and long-term mandates. “Institutional allocations tend to be slower-moving,” Cyprys explained, “but adoption continues to grow as regulation and ETF infrastructure mature.”
According to data from SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold more than $137 billion in assets under management, while Ether ETFs total around $22.4 billion — a clear sign that mainstream adoption continues despite short-term price weakness.
Whether this “fall season” turns into a full-blown winter remains to be seen. But with Bitcoin’s historical patterns repeating and macro signals flashing caution, investors may soon discover if Morgan Stanley’s harvest warning was right on time.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-enters-the-fall-season-of-its-market-cycle-says-morgan-stanley/