Topping the wave three hill

Executive summary

• Trend bias: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) appears to be near the end of a long-term wave ((iii)).
• Key level: ~45,781, near the blue support trend line marking the end of wave (iv).
• Continue to target new all-time highs so long as 45,781 is held.

Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a new high today as traders anticipate an end to the US government shutdown.

Current Elliott Wave analysis

The DJI is progressing within an Elliott wave three of a larger 5-wave trend. 

Wave ((iii)) began at the April 21, 2025 low and has embarked upon a steady climb higher. So far, prices have been supported by a trend line dating back to the wave (ii) low. This trend line can act like near-term support within the up trend.

Wave (iv) of ((iii)) appears to have ended on October 16 at the $45,781 price. Therefore, wave (v) of ((iii)) is underway. We are looking for 5-waves count off since the $45,781 low and it appears waves i & ii are in place.

Today’s rally is part of wave iii of (v) of ((iii)). This suggests still more upside is available and new all-time highs should continue to be seen over the coming days.

Bottom line

The DJI is nearing the end of a bullish wave ((iii)). The current Elliott wave appears to be wave (v) of ((iii)). If prices break below $45,781, then we’ll consider that the top of wave ((iii)) is in place and a 5-10% decline in wave ((iv)).