Reasons To Be Optimistic About COP30

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva delivers a speech during the General Plenary of Leaders in the framework of the COP30 UN Climate Change Conference in Belem, Para State, Brazil, on November 6, 2025. (Photo by Pablo PORCIUNCULA / AFP) (Photo by PABLO PORCIUNCULA/AFP via Getty Images)

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The “Reasons to be pessimistic about COP30” for a cynical commentator goes something like this: Delegates from around the world will board polluting planes to visit a city on the edge of a pristine ecosystem to discuss ways to avert climate change. Whilst they talk about climate reparations in air-conditioned conference centers, they are ignoring the real needs of energy consumers: affordability and security.

There is an amount of truth in all these arguments. When the Paris Agreement was signed ten years ago climate action had much greater momentum and even if the final outcome was a document of compromise, there was a willingness for countries to work together on this topic. In 2025, climate change has slipped so far down the agenda that the U.S. is refusing to send a high-level delegation to Belém. The recent International Maritime Organization’s failure to create a Net Zero Framework indicates and multilateralism is floundering, and it is easy to write-off COP30 before it has even started.

But let us take the opposite view. Let us look at the tremendous, exciting pace of the energy transition. Let us look at how countries and regions have made progress towards climate goals.

It would have been worse without the Paris Agreement

Given that the Paris Agreement brought together 196 governments, it is not surprising that the final agreement was imperfect. The fact that there is no legal mechanism to enforce the Nationally Determined Contributions can still be felt today, with many countries still failing to lay out their new NDCs as their delegates land in Brazil. Progress towards the existing goals is uneven and our analysis shows that all regions are falling short of their net zero aims.

We will not limit globa warming to 1.5 °C, the optimal outcome of the Paris Agreement, and the latest version of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook indicates net zero will not be reached until the 2090s. However, the commitments in place before the Paris Agreement would have led to global warming of 3-4°C. The first edition of our Energy Transition Outlook in 2017 forecast the planet would warm 2.5°C as apposed to this year’s edition which predicts global warming of 2.2°C.

The Paris Agreement was a massive milestone and it did act as a catalyst, even if the process has not been fast enough.

What about China?

The cynical commentator imagined in the opening paragraph might continue: …and what difference does it make if I install a heat pump? Look at China, which continues to burn more coal than anyone. Why should our energy bills rise in the name of climate change whilst China consumes more and more fossil fuels?

Again, there is an amount of truth here, but it is beneficial to understand the whole picture. By DNV’s calculations, China emits 34% of global energy-related emissions and its emissions from coal represent 24% of total global emissions.

But China is rapidly moving away from coal and its domestic green energy revolution means that renewable energy is becoming the cheapest form of power generation. We forecast China is approaching or experiencing peak coal right now, which is significant given it accounts for 70% of its emissions. Solar alone will be 26% of the power mix by 2030 and will go on to deliver more than half of all electricity in 2060.

China has established itself as the globe’s clean technology exporter. In a time of heightened geopolitical tension, this is problematic for the U.S. and Europe, but other countries are more open to China’s solar panels and wind turbines. Brazil, for example, has welcomed record investment from China in its energy infrastructure in the last year – much of it directed towards solar projects.

Europe showing leadership

Europe is in a difficult position. It is trying to balance economic competitiveness, affordability of consumers, security of supply independent of Russia and a genuine will to lower emissions

In many aspects, Europe is leading the world in terms of progressive climate policies. For example, Germany and the Netherlands are pioneering Carbon Contracts for Difference, guaranteeing a carbon price for green steel and cement. At the household level, policies such as Germany’s 65% renewable heating rule show how Europe is extending the transition from factories to front doors. Europe is also creating a market for carbon removals, with Sweden’s BECCS auctions and Denmark’s CCS Fund paying for verified tonnes of CO₂ stored. Meanwhile, the EU Taxonomy requires financial institutions to disclose exposure to high-carbon assets. Not all efforts have worked – the early ETS oversupply and weak efficiency targets showed the price of learning – but Europe’s readiness to experiment keeps it ahead.

Even though Europe is best in class, it will still fall short of its net-zero ambitions. By our numbers, it will not reach net zero by 2064.

Records and peaks

As well as withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, the Trump administration has reversed the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act measures in favour of fossil fuel friendly policies. The result is that the energy transition in North America is delayed by 5-8 years. This might leave the impression that the decarbonization of the global energy mix is slowing significantly or reversing. However, DNV’s analysis found that although the energy transition has slowed marginally, it is continuing at the same pace as before Trump entered the White House. This is largely because China is setting is setting new records for renewable deployment.

During 2025 we have passed the milestone of 50 million electric vehicles. Global solar PV capacity is projected to reach over 3000GW this year, with China having installed more than twice as much capacity as Europe, the next largest installer. And although it has come too late and it is too high, humanity is currently experiencing peak emissions. The challenge of COP30 is to try and expedite the decent to net-zero.

While it is easy to be cynical about the prospects for COP30, the evidence shows that international collaboration, however flawed, remains essential for driving climate action. And whilst the energy mix is decarbonizing too slowly, the energy transition is gathering momentum. The Paris Agreement’s achievements are measurable and we now need to work together again to bring global warming as far below 2°C as possible.