Trump broke out of a multi-month downtrend amid rising liquidity

Key Takeaways

What triggered the recent rally in the TRUMP memecoin? 

The rally was driven by renewed investor confidence following the U.S. government shutdown resolution and rising liquidity.

 What could impact TRUMP’s ability to sustain its bullish momentum? 

Profit-taking by whales and failure to break above key resistance levels could stall the uptrend.

Official Trump [TRUMP]  broke out of a multi-month descending channel validated by a move above $9, hitting a high of $9.56.  

As a result, the memecoin jumped above its short-term Moving Averages —EMA 20, 50, and 100, signaling a strengthening uptrend. 

In fact, at the time of writing, TRUMP traded at $8.54, up 11.34% on the daily charts. This uptick was backed by a 258% surge in volume, indicating steady capital inflow. 

So, why is TRUMP up today?

Liquidity rises after government shutdown deal

Notably, TRUMP memecoin rallied after the U.S. Senate reached a deal to end a 40-day government shutdown. 

With the political settlement, the market reacted positively to politically themed crypto tokens, including those tied to Donald Trump. During the shutdown, increased uncertainty over government expenditure deepened investor sentiment. 

With the government shutdown concerns resolved, investor confidence in the Trump administration strengthened, fueling a surge in the TRUMP memecoin.

Market liquidity also improved, with trading volume climbing to $1.81 billion — a sign of rising participation.

While still a meme token, TRUMP has consistently reacted to political and macroeconomic shifts, serving as a gauge of market sentiment.

Buyers step in

Significantly, as macro uncertainty eased, buyers across the market stepped in to accumulate. 

As such, over the past 24 hours, TRUMP recorded 20.2 million tokens in Buy Volume, the highest in November. Over the same period, the altcoin recorded 16 million in Sell Volume, resulting in a positive Buy Sell delta of 4 million. 

Source: Coinalyze

A positive delta typically signals buyer dominance, indicating strong demand for the asset.

Supporting this trend, exchange data from CoinGlass shows TRUMP’s Spot Netflow turned negative, reaching a weekly low, a sign of increased accumulation and capital outflows.

Source: CoinGlass

At press time, Netflow was -$5.65 million, a drop from $28 million the previous day, indicating higher outflows. Typically, increased outflows have historically accelerated upward pressure, a prelude to higher prices. 

Whales’ unrealized gains hit $3.4M

As accumulation continues, whale profit margins have surged.

According to Lookonchain, one whale who purchased 3 million TRUMP tokens for $26 million now holds $3.4 million in unrealized gains.

If these profits are cashed out, the resulting sell-off could put downward pressure on the token and threaten its recent rally.

Can the hype sustain?

According to AMBCrypto, TRUMP rebounded strongly as buyers stepped in, amid rising liquidity after the government shutdown deal.

As a result, the memecoin’s Stochastic RSI jumped to 51, at press time, edging into bullish territory. When this indicator makes a bullish crossover, it signals rising buyer dominance and potential trend continuation.

Source: TradingView

At press time, TRUMP tested EMA200 at $9.57. A daily cross above it could strengthen the memecoin, helping it attempt $10 resistance and eye $11.3.

However, if holders, especially whales, turn to profit-taking, Trump will pull back and find support around the 100EMA at $7.9.