Crypto prices may get a lift this week from a confluence of macro catalysts. President Trump’s proposal of $2,000 tariff-funded payments, around $400 billion total, has roiled markets, even as Treasury data show only $195 billion in tariff collections for FY2025.
In parallel, the Fed’s latest rate cut, 25 bps on Oct. 29, has injected fresh liquidity – “a tailwind that historically supports Bitcoin and other risk assets.”
A deal appears imminent to end the record 40-day U.S. government shutdown, which would release nearly $1 trillion held in the Treasury General Account back into the economy.
All eyes also turn to corporate earnings: USDC issuer Circle and miner Bitfarms report results this week.
Finally, Bitcoin has just closed above its 50-week moving average – a bullish technical signal that suggests the uptrend may persist.
Taken together, these factors have traders hopeful that crypto prices will trend higher in the near term.
Crypto Prices and Stimulus Optimism
News of massive stimulus has already pushed crypto prices up. Trump’s promised $2,000 “tariff dividends” to most Americans would total on the order of $400 billion.
By contrast, official data show customs duties of only about $195 billion in FY2025. In other words, the funding math does not quite add up, but the announcement has spurred risk-taking.
Bitcoin and major altcoins jumped on the news that Americans may receive extra cash via tariffs, even as analysts warn the plan may require additional borrowing.
The speculative boost from this fiscal plan is palpable: “the crypto market’s reaction … has been nothing short of extraordinary” in recent days.
Rate Cuts Boost Crypto Prices (With Inflation Caveats)
Monetary easing adds further support for crypto prices. The Fed’s October quarter-point cut “injects fresh liquidity into markets” and is historically bullish for high-beta assets like Bitcoin.
Lower short-term rates weaken the dollar and encourage investors to chase yield in riskier markets. However, policy makers caution that premature easing could stoke inflation.
As Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned, cutting rates too early “risks reigniting inflation, eroding consumer purchasing power” and could destabilize markets.
In short, loose monetary policy and a pending fiscal boost are a classic bullish combo for asset prices, but analysts are monitoring inflation risks.
For now, with inflation still above target, any incremental Fed easing this week (and in December) adds liquidity that likely benefits crypto prices – at least until inflation concerns re-emerge.
Government Reopening Unlocks Liquidity
A deal to end the 40-day U.S. government shutdown would likely flood markets with liquidity. The Senate has advanced a budget agreement to end the shutdown, now the longest on record.
In past shutdowns, markets often cheered the reopening – the 2019 end-of-shutdown saw a nearly 290% Bitcoin rally in five months.
More importantly, the current shutdown pushed the Treasury’s cash balance (the Treasury General Account) up to roughly $1 trillion, effectively locking that money out of circulation.
Once the government reopens, that $1 trillion can be spent or invested, easing the funding squeeze.
In other words, resolving the shutdown could “burst a liquidity dam” and pump fresh dollars into banks and markets, a tailwind for risk assets including crypto.
Indeed, Polymarket odds on the shutdown ending by mid-November are around 87%, suggesting traders expect this liquidity boost soon.
Earnings Spotlight: Circle vs. Bitfarms
This week’s key companies to watch are Circle, the issuer of USDC, and Bitfarms, a leading Bitcoin mining firm.
Circle (USDC issuer, NYSE: CRCL): Circle is the firm behind the USD-backed stablecoin USDC (the world’s #2 stablecoin by market cap).
In Q2 revenue of $658 million (up 53% YoY)[10], with an average USDC circulation of $61 billion (a 90% annual gain).
Net of distribution costs, Circle held $251 million of that revenue. The company took a $482 million net loss in Q2 (mostly IPO-related costs).
For Q3 (reporting Nov. 12), analysts expect about $709 million in revenue as USDC usage continues growing. Circle’s market cap ($39 billion) is already a large share of the USDC value.
Circle’s results serve as a bellwether for the stablecoin sector: if USDC demand and yields remain strong, it could sustain confidence in crypto liquidity.
Bitfarms (Bitcoin miner, NASDAQ: BITF): Bitfarms operates large-scale Bitcoin mining centers, especially in North America.
In Q2 2025 it earned $78 million in revenue (up 87% YoY), with a 45% gross mining margin.
The miner has been expanding U.S. operations (e.g. its Panther Creek, PA campus targeting HPC/AI) and just announced a $300 million debt financing to accelerate growth.
Bitfarms also launched a buyback program (up to 10% of float) and had repurchased 10% of its shares by early August.
As of mid-August it held about $85 million in cash and ~$145 million in Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Bitfarms will report Q3 results on Nov. 13, with street estimates roughly flat (small loss expected).
Investors will compare the two: Circle is a high-growth fintech issuing stablecoins; Bitfarms is a capital-intensive hardware operator.
Both are benefiting from rising crypto activity (stablecoin use and mining profits) but face very different cost structures.
In short, Circle brings huge revenue but also IPO-related losses, whereas Bitfarms has far smaller revenue ($78M) but is reinvesting heavily in new mines and buybacks.
Their results will shed light on the stablecoin market and mining profitability respectively – data points that could influence crypto prices next week.
Bitcoin Technicals Point Upward
On the charts, Bitcoin price action remains on a bullish path. It just closed a weekly candle above its 50-week simple moving average – a long-term trendline that has not breached downward since early 2023.
Analysts note that holding above this $102.8K level is key to keeping the bull market intact. This bullish weekly close “has convinced traders of [Bitcoin’s] ability to move higher.”
In other words, the technical picture is favorable: Bitcoin’s higher lows and higher highs remain in place, and a sustained break above the 50-week SMA suggests crypto prices could extend their run.
Of course, resistance looms near $110K, but if Bitcoin can clear that, many forecasters point to new all-time highs ahead.