What does Bitcoin’s silent IPO tell us about its price

Financial analyst Jordi Visser’s Substack essay “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO” argues that Bitcoin’s sideways trend mirrors an IPO phase, what does it mean?

What is “Bitcoin’s silent IPO?”

Before bringing up the Bitcoin IPO concept, Visser states that the market sentiment in crypto “is, frankly, brutal.” He notes that while gold, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are going through their respective record or nearly record prices, Bitcoin (BTC) is anything but exciting.

Despite reaching a new all-time high of $126,000 on Oct. 6, and amid strong ETF inflows, supportive U.S. regulation, and no major negative news, Bitcoin’s price has been moving back and forth.

Visser tries to explain why Bitcoin’s price movements are not keeping up with other risk assets like gold and leading stocks. He argues that despite its decentralized nature and revolutionary origins, Bitcoin continues to follow familiar economic patterns. His main point is that Bitcoin is fine, it is just “having its TradFi version of an IPO.”

Early investors take risks and expect rewards if the venture succeeds. Eventually, they look to realize gains. “They need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,” Visser writes.

That is when traditional companies hold IPOs to reward founders and early investors while redistributing ownership, which marks a sign of maturity and success. “It is not a moment of failure, it is a moment of success. The company does not die during its IPO,” he says.

Visser adds that IPOs often come with price corrections, which does not mean a company is struggling. He compares Bitcoin’s current “underperformance” to that phase, noting that investors may find it confusing since Bitcoin has no IPO, which is normal because Bitcoin is not a company.

For years, Bitcoin moved in tandem with tech stocks, but the correlation broke in December 2024. Visser attributes this to cautious new investors who are “not chasing,” while early investors quietly cash out without crashing the market.

The result is more subdued, uneven price action that seems detached from strong fundamentals, which, according to Visser, suggest that Bitcoin is not in a bear market.

Here’s how Visser describes the 2025 BTC price state:

“If this were a macro-driven weakness, Bitcoin would be falling with risk assets, not diverging from them. If this were a true “crypto winter,” we’d see panic, capitulation, and correlated selling across the entire space. Instead, we’re seeing something much more specific: methodical, patient selling into stable bids.”

Visser views the reactivation of many long-dormant Bitcoin wallets in 2025 as confirmation of his thesis. Data from CryptoQuant shows that 2025 marked the largest movements by inactive Bitcoin wallets in years. For the first time in a long period, Visser claims, early investors have enough market liquidity to sell their BTC holdings in bulk.

He stresses that the growing distribution of Bitcoin matters more than concentration in a smaller number of wallets, as in the past. Visser mentions an example of Galaxy Digital selling $9 billion worth of BTC to a single buyer in August 2025.

Visser concludes that following the “IPO moment,” the BTC price may grow significantly. He mentions examples of Amazon, Google, and Facebook. All three tech giants went through two-year consolidation periods after their respective IPOs before going up. 

So, Visser believes that the price swings will halt and patient investors will enjoy rewards.

Do people find this article meaningful?

The article made rounds online and received positive feedback from the readers. Although the main takeaway is based on a bold assumption, many expressed admiration for the text, noting that it’s timely and insightful. Some added that, unlike tech stocks, Bitcoin is a “finite asset,” given its hard-capped total supply. 

Others noted that while the piece is a worthy one, they cannot agree to some of its details. Some don’t agree that 2025 is the year when cypherpunks are selling (rather, those who invested in 2017-2018). Others pointed out that whales are not likely to sell Bitcoin. Rather, they prefer to keep collecting more Bitcoin.

DeFi market blogger Ignas took to X to spread the word about Visser’s text and added that Ethereum and Solana are lagging and are yet to “win” like Bitcoin did. Their maturation phase is yet to come.

In a commentary for crypto.News, co-founder of BTCFi platform Solv Protocol, Ryan Chow, notes that Bitcoin’s “silent IPO” phase may turn it into a yield-bearing asset:

Bitcoin’s current consolidation is a natural part of market maturation. The gradual redistribution from early holders into a broader base creates more liquidity and stability, much like post-IPO lock-up periods in traditional markets. As liquidity tightens globally and capital efficiency becomes the new premium, Bitcoin is undergoing the same structural broadening we’ve seen in every asset class that institutionalizes. Early holders are gradually distributing to a new generation of allocators — asset managers, corporates, and sovereigns — creating deeper liquidity and a more stable ownership base.

This shift parallels the evolution of gold and equities after financialization: value moves from pure appreciation to productive deployment. In Bitcoin’s case, that means the emergence of native yield markets — transparent, on-chain instruments that turn BTC from a dormant asset into a collateralized, yield-bearing reserve. That’s where the next wave of adoption will happen in yield infrastructure built directly on Bitcoin.

Generally, those who commented on a piece found Visser’s analogy compelling, while not focusing on the very fact that analogies are not always reliable. Probably, one of the reasons why the article was met positively is that it brings sense and hope in a time when Bitcoin’s market performance disappoints and puzzles investors.