Key Insights:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock has dropped over 21% in 30 days even as Bitcoin holds firm above $100K.
- Continuous share sales and weak money inflows are keeping investor confidence low despite new Bitcoin buys.
- Heavy exposure to Bitcoin’s price makes the crypto stock more volatile, limiting upside until buying pressure returns.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price, now Strategy, has kept falling even as Bitcoin stays strong. Over the past month, Bitcoin dropped about 3.2%, but the crypto stock fell more than 21%. The company has kept buying the cryptocurrency.
Just last week, it bought another 487 BTC for about $49.9 million, paying roughly $102,557 per coin. That brings its total to 641,692 BTC, worth nearly $47.5 billion. Even with this big addition, the stock stayed weak.
So, why is MicroStrategy falling when Bitcoin is not? Here are three simple reasons.
Money Is Leaving MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock
The first clue comes from money flow data. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows whether funds are going in or out of a stock.
When CMF stays below zero, it means investors are taking money out. For MicroStrategy stock, CMF has stayed negative since early October.
That shows traders have been selling the stock, not buying it. Even though the company keeps buying Bitcoin, new money is not entering its shares.
This means investors don’t see the crypto stock as a strong way to gain Bitcoin exposure right now.
Many prefer to buy Bitcoin directly. Till the time CMF turns positive again, MSTR stock may stay under pressure.
More Shares Mean Lower Value
MicroStrategy often raises money by selling new shares or convertible notes. These are used to buy more Bitcoin. But when a company issues new shares, the value of old ones gets smaller.
Convertible notes are loans that can turn into shares later. That means even more shares could enter the market.
More supply and less demand usually push prices down.
Investors worry that the company is spending too much on Bitcoin and not earning enough from its business. Therefore, even though new Bitcoin purchases sound bullish, the way it is funded weakens the MSTR stock price.
Too Much Dependence on Bitcoin Price
MicroStrategy now holds more than 641,000 BTC, worth about $47.5 billion. That gives it huge exposure to Bitcoin’s price moves.
When Bitcoin rises, the crypto stock can rise faster. But when the cryptocurrency drops, the losses also grow faster.
This means the MSTR stock reacts more sharply than Bitcoin itself. A small fall in Bitcoin can hurt MicroStrategy stock much more.
Because of this, many traders prefer owning Bitcoin directly instead of the company’s shares. So even if Bitcoin holds above $100,000, the MicroStrategy stock price can still fall if buyers remain cautious.
MicroStrategy Stock Price Levels To Watch
At press time, MSTR stock traded near $219, its key support. If it slips below that level, selling could increase.
For any real recovery, the price must break above $276 first. A stronger rally could start only if it crosses $367, where past rallies have failed.
The CMF indicator still points to weak inflows. It shows that money is not coming back to the stock yet. Until that changes, MicroStrategy stock price will likely remain flat or drift lower even if Bitcoin stays steady.
Bitcoin has held firm, but the MSTR stock price keeps sliding. The reasons are clear: money is leaving the stock, more shares are being created, and the company’s value depends too much on Bitcoin’s movements.
Unless new money flows in and the company stops adding debt or issuing more shares, MicroStrategy stock will find it hard to recover.
Traders who want Bitcoin exposure may keep choosing Bitcoin itself instead of MSTR for now.