If you had to sum up bitcoin’s market action since June, “range-bound” and “directionless” might fit the bill.
The price has been trading broadly above $100,000, with no clear directional bias. But don’t mistake the range play for inactivity – BTC worth billions has changed hands in that range, a dynamic with significant market implications, according to a new report by 10x Research.
The firm’s founder, Markus Thielen, pointed out in a Friday report to clients that nearly 5.9 million BTC, worth $588 billion, moved between $100,000 and $126,000 in recent months, a value greater than the ether’s market cap of roughly $428 billion. That’s a staggering amount of value transacted during the supposed dull range play.
What makes this on-chain churn so important?
According to Thielen, a large chunk of these coins now sits with investors who have less conviction, or with institutional players under pressure from risk managers and skeptics. These holders could be susceptible to panic selling if the price dips further.
“Many of those coins now sit on vulnerable balance sheets, vulnerable not because of conviction, but because institutional risk managers and Bitcoin-skeptic executives may ultimately force those positions to be closed,” Thielen noted.
Around 347,000 BTC alone changed hands near the $101,000 mark, he added, highlighting just how clustered recent activity has been close to critical price levels.
Taken together, this raises the stakes if BTC breaks below $100,000.
Key Levels Below $100K
Thielen warned that such a break could trigger sales from these fragile holders, accelerating a decline into what he describes as a liquidity “air pocket” centered around $93,000, the last major cluster of buying demand.
In other words, the volatility you don’t see on the price chart could still be lurking beneath the surface – millions of BTC moving to restless hands on the edge, and a tenuous balance waiting to tip.
A potential slide to $93,000 or lower could trigger increased volatility, as the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs have an average acquisition cost near $90,000. “Those $60.5 billion in ETF inflows may quickly come under scrutiny if price pressure accelerates,” Thielen said.
As of writing, BTC changed hands at $105,400, according to CoinDesk data.