Is your rebate check in the mail? Not just yet—and maybe not at all.
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President Donald Trump has a new pitch for taxpayers, and it sounds simple enough: Send everyone a $2,000 per person tariff “dividend.”
Trump pitched the idea on social media over the weekend, posting on Truth Social, “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!,” then promising that “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
Screenshot from President Trump on Truth Social dated November 9, 2025.
Kelly Phillips Erb
It made headlines, for sure—taxpayers love getting a check from the government (we’ve seen many such pitches, post-COVID, since voters still remember fondly the checks they got during the pandemic). But as always, the details matter.
Here’s what you need to know about what exactly Trump is proposing, where the money would come from, why some (including those in Congress) are raising their eyebrows, and why you shouldn’t spend it just yet.
What’s a Tariff?
A tariff is a tax on imports. A country typically imposes tariffs to make money or protect certain industries from competition—sometimes, both. The idea is that tariffs make it more expensive to use foreign goods. In theory, this should mean a decline in imports and an uptick in the use of domestic goods, assuming that the goods are manufactured or available at home.
The Trump administration has relied heavily on tariffs, especially on goods from China. The administration has claimed victory on several fronts, though some companies have pushed back, citing increased costs, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty.
What’s a Tariff Dividend or Rebate Check?
The Trump administration has suggested that the checks to taxpayers are a way to return the money generated by the tariffs. According to the U.S. Treasury, the government collected $195 billion in customs duties in the fiscal year that ended September 30, 2025 (customs duties are a broad term that includes tariffs but can also cover other taxes, such as excise duties on specific goods like alcohol or tobacco).
Trump’s idea is to take a chunk of that revenue and send it to U.S. households. He’s framed it as a “dividend.” (A dividend typically describes a payout to shareholders from a company’s profits, and it is usually taxable.)
A Government Check Déjà Vu
If the idea of getting a check from the government feels familiar, it’s because we’ve seen versions before, most notably with economic stimulus checks.
In 2008, President George W. Bush mailed out “rebate checks” of up to $600 per person to cushion the financial crisis. And more recently, in 2020 and 2021, Americans were on the receiving end of three rounds of COVID-19 stimulus checks under both Presidents Trump and Joe Biden. Those payments were meant to boost consumer spending during downturns. But unlike those relief efforts, Trump’s new idea isn’t tied to an emergency, and it wouldn’t be funded from general tax revenue.
It also echoes an earlier promise to return money allegedly saved through cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). In February, Trump told a Florida audience, “We’re considering giving 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% to paying down the debt.” As momentum for the idea grew, it was suggested that the checks could be as high as $5,000. Those checks never materialized.
Can Trump Send Out Tariff Rebate or Dividend Checks?
No. While the President may be able to impose some tariffs, only Congress has the authority to spend federal money. That includes sending checks to the public. (It’s worth noting that the President’s authority to use emergency powers for the most recent rounds of tariffs has being challenged before the Supreme Court, with the Justices during last week’s hearing sounding skeptical. More on that later.)
Those earlier round of stimulus or rebate checks? They required and received congressional approval. That should be the case here, although Trump has shown very little regard for asking Congress for authority (see tariffs) and Congress has shown little appetite for challenging the president (see also tariffs). It should be the case, however, that Trump would need a stamp from Congress before the Treasury would start cutting checks.
The support may not be there. A previous effort by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) to send out $600 in “immediate tax rebates” was introduced this summer and never made it out of committee.
There also doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm from the Treasury. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told ABC’s This Week there had been no formal proposal to send out checks. He suggested the payment “could come in lots of forms,” including already being accounted for in tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
“It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility on auto loans. Those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill,” Bessent said.
“The real goal of tariffs is to rebalance trade and make it more fair,” Bessent added.
Who Would Get a Tariff Rebate or Dividend Check?
It is not clear who would qualify for the payout, though on Truth Social, Trump suggested that the check would be paid to “everyone” but caveated it to exclude “high income people.”
It’s tough to know what that means. For the 2025 tax year, the highest marginal tax rate of 37% applies to taxable income of $626,351 or more for single filers ($751,601 or more for married couples filing jointly).
High-income earners are also subject to an Additional Medicare Tax of 0.9% on earned income above certain thresholds. That kicks in at $200,000 for single filers ($250,000 for married couples filing jointly). The same thresholds apply to the Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT), an additional 3.8% tax on certain net income.
And more recently, under the SECTION 2.0 Act, a law targeted to higher-income employees aged 50 and above set limits of previous year FICA wages of $145,000 or more (indexed for inflation). Those employees must treat catch-up contributions to section 401(k), 403(b), or governmental 457(b) plans as after-tax Roth contributions.
Finally, according to the Census, the median U.S. household income was $83,730. The same data suggests that those making about $336,000 are in the top five percent.
Can The U.S. Afford To Send Out Checks?
It depends on whom you ask… but the math doesn’t appear to be mathing.
The total tariff revenue collected since Trump returned to office is around $200 billion. Last year, the IRS received roughly 163 million individual tax returns. If you gave each of those families $2,000, it would total $326 billion. To quote Jon Lovitz as Ernie Capadino in “A League of Their Own,” when pitching a paycheck to Kit Keller, “Well then, this would be more, wouldn’t it?” Even excluding high-income earners, the math still falls short.
And spending more isn’t likely to be on Congress’ wish list. For the last fiscal year (which just ended in September), the federal government spent $7.01 trillion and collected $5.23 trillion in revenue. The amount by which spending exceeded revenue was $1.78 trillion.
The Supreme Court May Want a Word
Another wrinkle: about half of those tariffs—roughly $100 billion—were imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Whether President Trump had the power to impose those tariffs is now under review by the Supreme Court.
The 1977 law allows the president “to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States,” if he declares a national emergency “with respect to such threat.” This includes regulating imports and exports. Trump suggests that there are two threats: the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. and large trade deficits.
Small businesses and states challenged the use of IEEPA in court, and those challenges eventually landed at the Supreme Court.
The theory asserted in those lawsuits is that the executive’s power to regulate imports does not include the power to impose tariffs. They go on to say that tariffs are effectively like the internal taxes collected by the IRS, and taxing power—apparently uniquely—can be delegated by Congress to the president only with a highly specific delegation.
Importantly, those challenging the president’s power to impose tariffs aren’t arguing that Congress cannot delegate the power to tax or to tariff, only that there is no delegation here. When Congress delegates the “uniquely dangerous” tax power to the president, they assert, it must speak clearly, preferably using specific words like “tariff.”
While the justices have been asked to resolve the matter quickly, it’s unclear when we’ll have the court’s ruling. However, if the oral arguments offer any sort of window into the Supreme Court’s leaning (they generally do), the Court appeared skeptical of President Donald Trump’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs. The justices seemed to agree with those who argued that the tariffs exceeded the president’s powers.
And, interestingly, while arguing on behalf of the Trump administration, Solicitor General John Sauer attempted to downplay the dollars being collected. “The fact that [the tariffs] raise revenue is only incidental,” Sauer told the Court.
What About Inflation?
Taxpayers may welcome the extra cash, but economists are mixed about whether previous distributions, and particularly those made during the pandemic, contributed to the increase in inflation.
Putting money into the hands of consumers is intended to stimulate the economy. But it could also drive prices up again at a time when the administration is trying to keep inflation manageable.
If The Tariff Rebate or Dividend Checks Go Out, When Would They Arrive?
Let’s assume that the checks are approved by Congress. And let’s assume that happens really quickly. Does that mean that you should count on the fact that the check is in the mail?
Likely not. Even if Congress gives the dividend a thumbs up, it will take weeks for direct deposits to be sorted and even longer for paper checks (and remember, the federal government has ordered agencies not to send out paper checks).
What’s Next?
A $2,000 “tariff rebate” or dividend check may sound like a good idea, but while the idea makes for a splashy post on social media, the reality is a bit more complicated. Don’t spend yours just yet.
(This is a developing story. Don’t forget to check back with our Forbes tax team for updates as they happen.)