Tom Lee’s Ethereum Price Prediction Is Flawed

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee as Ethereum takes back the headlines with big predictions flying. Some say the next surge is just around the corner, while others caution that hidden assumptions and long timelines could make the hype more complicated than it seems.

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Crypto News of the Day: Analyst Pushes Back on Tom Lee’s $60,000 Ethereum Prediction

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee recently made headlines with a bold forecast that Ethereum (ETH) could reach $60,000 in the near future.

The crypto executive cited the migration of real-world assets (RWA) onto the blockchain as the primary catalyst for this shift.

“The total size of global financial markets is 200 trillion, maybe more. How much of that ends up on blockchains? According to Larry Fink, the idea is to move 100% of this onto the blockchain. So we’re talking trillions of dollars of assets moving onto layer one blockchains,” he stated.

Lee shared his perspective during an interview, framing Ethereum as a potential global financial settlement layer.

According to Lee, Ethereum’s market cap of around $440 billion pales in comparison to the $200–300 trillion in global financial assets, including stocks, bonds, and real estate.

Even a fraction of these assets, Lee suggests, 0.5% to 1%, moving on-chain could, in his view, multiply Ethereum’s network value several times. This, in his opinion, justifies his $60,000 target.

He also highlighted Ethereum’s strong validator network, decade-long uptime, and alignment with Wall Street’s growing interest in tokenization as key tailwinds supporting long-term growth.

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However, crypto analyst BitWu critiqued Lee’s forecast, describing it as overly reliant on what he calls a “typical RWA narrative.” The analyst cautioned that Lee’s model rests on two hidden assumptions:

• That all real-world assets will settle on Ethereum’s mainnet, and,
• That Ethereum’s price will directly reflect settlement volume.

While both assumptions are “reasonable,” BitWu argues, they oversimplify the unique mix of macroeconomic factors, regulatory clarity, and infrastructure maturity that will ultimately determine Ethereum’s trajectory.

“ETH at $60,000 USD is no problem [but not this year]. In about three years, I think it’s possible! Why do I say that? The true breakout point for RWA, I believe may be in 2026-2028, depending on the macroeconomic interest rate cycle + regulatory clarity + maturity of on-chain infrastructure (especially L2 and compliant chains),” BitWu explained.  

He emphasized that the RWA trend is less about short-term price spikes and more about Ethereum’s long-term status as a foundational financial infrastructure.

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Ethereum’s Long-Term Promise vs. Short-Term Hype

During the interview, Lee also stressed Ethereum’s unique position as a smart contract blockchain, enabling tokenization beyond simple digital dollars.

He highlighted stablecoins as a breakout product this year, allowing fractional payments and finality in transactions. Based on this, the Fundstrat executive suggested that future tokenization could extend to equities, bonds, real estate, and even prediction markets.

While both Lee and BitWu agree on Ethereum’s long-term potential, the divide lies in timing and scale.

On the one hand, Lee frames the opportunity as a mathematical certainty once adoption occurs. On the other hand, BitWu cautions that adoption will be gradual, constrained by regulatory, macroeconomic, and technological realities.

Meanwhile, this is not the first time Tom Lee’s Ethereum prediction is dismantled. A US Crypto News publication in late September saw Andrew Kang challenge Tom Lee’s bullish ETH thesis as “financially illiterate.”

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