After narrowly escaping a historic 40-day U.S. government shutdown, markets are catching their breath. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 level, yet analysts warn the recovery may not mark the beginning of a new bull cycle just yet.
- Bitcoin rebounded from the $100,000 support zone after the U.S. government shutdown ended.
- Analysts from 10x Research warn the move may be a short-lived relief rally, not a full bull restart.
- On-chain data shows BTC trading below the short-term holder realized price of $111,937.
- Social interest in crypto remains near record lows, suggesting weak retail participation.
According to a new report from 10x Research titled “Bitcoin: Just a Relief Rally? Or Bull Market Restart?”, the recent rebound looks more like a “temporary relief rally” than a structural restart of bullish momentum. The firm emphasized that liquidity conditions and institutional flow dynamics have shifted compared to previous cycles, hinting that traders may be underestimating deeper macro forces at play.
Bitcoin: Just a Relief Rally? Or Bull Market Restart?
The market just survived a historic government shutdown, but the relief rally many expected may not be the one that matters.
Beneath the headlines, institutional flows are quietly shifting, and one key liquidity signal just… pic.twitter.com/AMYkIlZNOo
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) November 10, 2025
A Fragile Rebound at $100K
Bitcoin’s recovery follows a sharp correction last week when it briefly slipped below $100,000 for the first time in two months. A bounce from that support zone triggered optimism across social media, with trader Crypto Rover calling it “the perfect Bitcoin bounce.”
The perfect Bitcoin bounce! pic.twitter.com/U7WGaKFacK
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 10, 2025
However, 10x Research noted that such short-term reactions might be misleading. “The real battle line sits elsewhere,” the report stated, referring to key ETF-related liquidity indicators that have begun flashing mixed signals. If these signals continue to weaken, the market could face renewed selling pressure before a sustainable uptrend emerges.
On-Chain Metrics Show Risk of Deeper Correction
Data from Glassnode analyst Ali suggests that Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price currently stands at $111,937 — a level the market has yet to reclaim. Historically, staying below this threshold increases the probability of a move toward deeper support zones such as $56,000 or even $37,800.
The longer Bitcoin $BTC stays below the STH Realized Price ($111,937), the higher the probability of a move toward the Realized Price ($56,145) or even the LTH Realized Price ($37,815). pic.twitter.com/OVYC4K7lrI
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 9, 2025
“This is the zone that separates continuation from correction,” Ali explained, noting that past cycles have often seen multiple retests of realized price levels before confirming a longer-term bottom or breakout.
Social Interest Near Record Lows
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive rebound, social engagement remains alarmingly muted. Charts shared by Crypto Rover show that the Historical Social Metric Risk — which tracks activity from Twitter, YouTube, and other platforms — is hovering near cycle lows.
No social interest in Bitcoin or crypto right now! pic.twitter.com/g6LDPggpoc
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 9, 2025
Periods of low social activity have historically preceded major upward reversals, yet they also reflect a lack of retail participation, leaving the market largely dependent on institutional sentiment. “No social interest in Bitcoin or crypto right now,” Rover remarked, underscoring the absence of hype that often fuels bull markets.
Sentiment Oscillates Between Fear and Greed
Investor psychology continues to shift unpredictably. Data from Alpharactal’s Crypto Sentiment Gauge, shared by analyst Boris, shows that the market keeps swinging between fear and greed phases. This cyclical behavior suggests growing uncertainty, as traders hesitate to commit strongly in either direction.
While fear could soon give way to accumulation, a failure to sustain momentum above key resistance levels may push Bitcoin into a prolonged consolidation phase heading into year-end.
Macro Uncertainty Ahead of December Fed Meeting
10x Research warned that the market’s relief may be short-lived, as broader macroeconomic pressures are set to re-emerge. Although the U.S. government shutdown has officially ended, the report described it as “political theater” that did little to change the economic outlook.
With growth data appearing stronger than labor market conditions suggest, the December Federal Reserve meeting could introduce renewed volatility. Any surprise shift in monetary tone — particularly regarding rate cuts or balance sheet policy — could influence both risk assets and Bitcoin’s next major move.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
For now, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $100,000 remains encouraging, but analysts agree that the decisive moment will arrive once the market retests higher resistance near $112,000. A clear breakout could reignite bullish conviction, while rejection at this level might confirm that the current rally is simply a pause in a broader correction phase.
Until then, the balance between institutional flows, retail sentiment, and macro policy will continue to dictate Bitcoin’s direction as traders navigate the uncertain weeks ahead.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-rally-faces-doubts-as-analysts-warn-of-fragile-momentum/