- Polymarket market is currently pricing a 48% chance that bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 before Rockstar releases GTA VI.
- BTC is trading close to $101,000, which would require roughly a 10x jump in about 20 days to beat the Nov. 26, 2025 game date.
- The market stays open if GTA VI is delayed and resolves 50/50 on July 31, 2026 if neither trigger happens.
Prediction market users have started trading on an outcome that has no economic link at all, that of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before Rockstar releases Grand Theft Auto Version 6 (GTA VI).
The listing got traction across X because it links two very online timelines, crypto price targets and a long-awaited game launch, into one pot. At the time of the snapshot, BTC was trading near $100,967, a level that makes a $1 million target look extreme on such a short countdown.
Related: $200,000 Bitcoin by Year-End? Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Doubles Down on Bullish Call
Wild But Not Unachievable
Most cryptocurrency users consider the latest Polymarket data concerning Bitcoin’s price to be wild, considering the cryptocurrency’s current price and the prevailing crypto market trend. For context, GTA VI is scheduled to go live on November 26, only 20 days from the time of writing, while BTC traded for $100,967, according to data from TradingView.
In mathematical terms, the cited Polymarket data suggest that Bitcoin has a 48% chance of surging approximately 10x in the next 20 days. Despite not ruling out the possibility, the pioneer cryptocurrency might need to rediscover its form from over a decade ago, when it was prone to unprecedented volatility, to achieve this feat.
What Are the Possibilities?
In the meantime, Polymarket analysts are scrutinizing the details of the bet linking Bitcoin’s $1 million target with the GTA VI release. Although the scheduled date at the time of writing is November 26, the bet will not close if the game’s developers decide to move the date forward. It is worth noting that the market will resolve at 50/50 if neither event happens by July 31, 2026.
Bitcoin has maintained an overall bullish trajectory since the middle of Q4 2022 after rebounding from the last bear market. The cryptocurrency bounced off support around the $16,000 region before embarking on a sustained rally that saw it reach $126,272, a new all-time high, in October 2025.
Can BTC Rediscover Its Historical Form?
The run from the final months of 2022 to October 2025 reflects a 675% rally for Bitcoin, which is greater in ratio than the task ahead, should the cryptocurrency aim for the $1 million target.
Although most analysts believe in Bitcoin’s potential to reach $1 million in the future, achieving it in such a short period would be an exceptional achievement, even for the high-flying digital asset.
Related: Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Holds Critical Support Despite 20% Correction
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Source: https://coinedition.com/polymarket-gives-bitcoin-48-percent-shot-at-1-million-before-gta-vi/